| Literature DB >> 28436467 |
Jacqueline Huvanandana1, Chinh Nguyen2, Cindy Thamrin2, Mark Tracy3,4, Murray Hinder1,3, Alistair L McEwan1.
Abstract
Despite the decline in mortality rates of extremely preterm infants, intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) remains common in survivors. The need for resuscitation and cardiorespiratory management, particularly within the first 24 hours of life, are important factors in the incidence and timing of IVH. Variability analyses of heart rate and blood pressure data has demonstrated potential approaches to predictive monitoring. In this study, we investigated the early identification of infants at a high risk of developing IVH, using time series analysis of blood pressure and respiratory data. We also explore approaches to improving model performance, such as the inclusion of multiple variables and signal pre-processing to enhance the results from detrended fluctuation analysis. Of the models we evaluated, the highest area under receiver-operator characteristic curve (5th, 95th percentile) achieved was 0.921 (0.82, 1.00) by mean diastolic blood pressure and the long-term scaling exponent of pulse interval (PI α2), exhibiting a sensitivity of >90% at a specificity of 75%. Following evaluation in a larger population, our approach may be useful in predictive monitoring to identify infants at high risk of developing IVH, offering caregivers more time to adjust intensive care treatment.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2017 PMID: 28436467 PMCID: PMC5402275 DOI: 10.1038/srep46538
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Comparison of physiological variables between infants who later developed intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) and those who did not (non-IVH).
| Variable | IVH (n = 7) | Non-IVH (n = 20) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gestational age (weeks) | 26.8 ± 1.2 | 26.9 ± 1.8 | 0.781 |
| Birthweight (g) | 1120 ± 282 | 1029 ± 293 | 0.580 |
| Sex (% male) | 57.1 ± 49.5 | 65.0 ± 47.7 | 0.741 |
| CRIBII | 9 ± 1 | 9 ± 2 | 1.000 |
| PDA (%) | 85.7 ± 35.0 | 80.0 ± 40.0 | 0.774 |
| RDS | 1.0 ± 0.0 | 1.0 ± 0.0 | 1.000 |
| Apgar 1-min | 6 ± 1 | 6 ± 2 | 0.696 |
| Apgar 5-min | 7 ± 1 | 7 ± 1 | 0.421 |
| MAP (mmHg) | 32.5 ± 6.1 | 35.2 ± 4.7 | 0.422 |
| DBP (mmHg) | 25.0 ± 3.9 | 29.0 ± 4.6 | 0.050 |
| MAPc (mmHg) | 32.1 ± 5.6 | 35.5 ± 4.2 | 0.234 |
| DBPc (mmHg) | 24.6 ± 3.5 | 29.4 ± 4.1 | 0.019 |
Values are reported as mean ± SD. cDenotes detrended features, CRIBII is the Clinical Risk Index for Babies score II, PDA is Patent Ductus Arteriosus and RDS is Respiratory Distress Syndrome. p values are derived from a two-sided Mann-Whitney U-test where significance is defined as p < 0.05.
Effect of Detrending.
| Variable | IVH | Non-IVH | AUC | AUC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAP | ||||||
| | 32.5 ± 6.1 mmHg | 35.2 ± 4.7 mmHg | 0.607 | 0.657 | 0.422 | 0.234 |
| | 0.96 ± 0.17 | 0.78 ± 0.19 | 0.779 | 0.779 | 0.033 | 0.033 |
| | 1.10 ± 0.06 | 1.00 ± 0.18 | 0.671 | 0.65 | 0.194 | 0.257 |
| SBP | ||||||
| | 41.9 ± 9.7 mmHg | 42.7 ± 5.4 mmHg | 0.564 | 0.55 | 0.638 | 0.719 |
| | 0.83 ± 0.11 | 0.69 ± 0.15 | 0.764 | 0.771 | 0.043 | 0.038 |
| | 1.04 ± 0.08 | 0.97 ± 0.16 | 0.643 | 0.664 | 0.281 | 0.213 |
| DBP | ||||||
| | 25.0 ± 3.9 mmHg | 29.0 ± 4.6 mmHg | 0.757 | 0.807 | 0.05 | 0.019 |
| | 0.85 ± 0.12 | 0.68 ± 0.20 | 0.786 | 0.807 | 0.029 | 0.019 |
| | 1.05 ± 0.06 | 0.93 ± 0.16 | 0.757 | 0.771 | 0.05 | 0.038 |
Values are reported as mean ± SD, p values are from Mann-Whitney U-tests from the non-detrended data. AUC is the area under the ROC curve for prediction of IVH. Note that AUC and p are obtained from the detrended data.
Figure 1Normalised histograms of (a) mean DBP and (b) DBP α1 for IVH and non-IVH groups. The distributions for each group were based on features extracted from all individual windows which met the quality criteria.
Univariate Logistic Regression models.
| Model | AUC (95% CI) | Threshold | LR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAP | ||||
| | 0.657 (0.37, 0.95) | 0.218 | 31.72 mmHg | 2.29 |
| | 0.779 (0.60, 0.96) | 0.359 | 0.92 | 2.86 |
| | 0.650 (0.44, 0.86) | 0.839 | 1.08 | 2.40 |
| SBP | ||||
| | 0.550 (0.20, 0.90) | 0.389 | 37.96 mmHg | 2.29 |
| | 0.771 (0.58, 0.96) | 0.382 | 0.81 | 2.86 |
| | 0.664 (0.43, 0.90) | 0.792 | 0.94 | 1.60 |
| DBP | ||||
| | 0.807 (0.62, 0.99) | 0.022 | 26.34 mmHg | 2.86 |
| | 0.807 (0.64, 0.97) | 0.278 | 0.79 | 3.43 |
| | 0.771 (0.59, 0.95) | 0.415 | 1.02 | 2.80 |
| PI | ||||
| | 0.543 (0.25, 0.83) | 0.759 | 50.10 ms | 1.40 |
| | 0.607 (0.38, 0.84) | 1.000 | 0.42 | 1.40 |
| | 0.707 (0.45, 0.97) | 0.709 | 1.08 | 2.29 |
| IBI | ||||
| | 0.707 (0.46, 0.96) | 0.643 | 115.88 ms | 2.40 |
| | 0.500 (0.25, 0.75) | 0.568 | 0.52 | 1.14 |
| | 0.557 (0.26, 0.85) | 0.813 | 0.45 | 0.40 |
Models were fitted with mean (μ), short- and long-term scaling exponents (α1 and α2, respectively) for five time series: mean arterial (MAP), systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure, as well as pulse (PI) and interbreath (IBI) intervals. Positive likelihood ratios (LR) and corresponding thresholds are reported at a specificity of 75%. 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p values reported for the AUC are derived from the Delong approach14 for determining standard error and comparison with the reference ROC of the non-detrended mean MAP model.
Multivariable logistic regression models.
| Feature 1 | Feature 2 | AUC (95% CI) | LR | AUC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBP | DBP | 0.843 (0.68, 1.01) | 0.009 | 2.86 | 0.721 (0.50, 0.94) |
| PI | DBP | 0.843 (0.69, 1.00) | 0.014 | 2.86 | 0.643 (0.40, 0.89) |
| DBP | DBP | 0.864 (0.72, 1.00) | 0.022 | 2.86 | 0.750 (0.56, 0.94) |
| PI | MAP | 0.864 (0.72, 1.01) | 0.068 | 3.43 | 0.679 (0.46, 0.89) |
| MAP | DBP | 0.871 (0.74, 1.01) | 0.027 | 3.43 | 0.743 (0.55, 0.94) |
| PI | DBP | 0.921 (0.82, 1.02) | 0.035 | 4.00 | 0.821 (0.66, 0.99) |
Features included mean (μ), short- and long-term scaling exponents (α1 and α2, respectively) for mean arterial (MAP), systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure, as well as pulse interval (PI) time series. LR denotes the positive likelihood ratios, the 95% confidence intervals (CI) are reported for the AUC. p values are derived from the Delong comparison14 with the non-detrended mean MAP model. The corresponding AUCs from leave-one-out cross-validation (AUC) are also reported, where *denotes a statistically-significant (p < 0.05) difference from the Delong comparison of the LOOCV mean DBP model14.
Figure 2Receiver-Operator Characteristic Curves.
These show the ROC curves for the non-detrended univariate mean DBP (DBP μ) model, the impact of detrending this feature (DBP μ), the addition of a respiratory feature (IBI α2) as well as two of the highest-scoring models (DBP μ combined with MAP α1 and PI α2, respectively).
Figure 3Detrending of overall segment.
(a) shows the original signal and the corresponding non-linear trend, while (b) displays the signal after removal of this trend.
Figure 4Arterial blood pressure data and the predicted probability for IVH using the highest scoring model, mean DBP and PI α2 for correct classification of (a) IVH and (b) non-IVH, as well as incorrect classification of (c) IVH and (d) non-IVH. The threshold for classifying IVH, designated by the dashed line was defined at 90% specificity and 85% sensitivity. Red and blue markers represent windows that exceeded and did not exceed the threshold, respectively.