| Literature DB >> 28431299 |
Abstract
It is claimed that people are unable (or unwilling) to incorporate prior probabilities into posterior assessments, such as their estimation of the likelihood of a person with characteristics typical of an engineer actually being an engineer given that they are drawn from a sample including a very small number of engineers. This paper shows that base rates are incorporated in classifications (Experiment 1) and, moreover, that base rates also affect unrelated judgments, such as how well a provided description of a person fits a stereotypical engineer (Experiment 2). Finally, Experiment 3 shows that individuals who make both types of assessments - though using base rates to the same extent in the former judgments - are able to decrease the extent to which they incorporate base rates in the latter judgments.Entities:
Keywords: Base-rate neglect; Biases; Conditional probability; Heuristics; Inverse fallacy; Judgment
Mesh:
Year: 2017 PMID: 28431299 DOI: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2017.04.003
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Acta Psychol (Amst) ISSN: 0001-6918