Natural history of adenocarcinoma-large cell carcinoma of the lung: conclusions from screening programs in New York and Baltimore.

A mathematical model of the progression kinetics of lung cancer was described and used to shed light on the natural history of adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma of lung from data collected in screening studies of male smokers by the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and The Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions. In both programs, estimates of the mean duration of early-stage adenocarcinoma or large cell carcinoma of lung ranged upward from 4 years, and estimates of the probability of detecting it in early-stage disease ranged downward from .16. The probabilities of curing early-stage disease through surgical treatment were found to be at most .52 and .13 in the New York and Baltimore studies, respectively. These estimates led to the conclusion that expected reduction in mortality from adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma of lung as due to annual x-ray screening from age 45 to 80 years is not greater than 18% in New York and 5% in Baltimore.