Evaluation of cancer prevention strategies by computerized simulation model: an approach to lung cancer.

A computerized simulation model was developed to evaluate the potential impact of primary and secondary prevention on lung cancer mortality in Japan. The natural history of lung cancer was modeled as a Markovian stochastic process from cancer-free to preclinical, clinical, and finally to terminal states. The increase in mortality rate of lung cancer among males aged 75 to 79 years has been the major force of increase in the total number of lung cancer deaths in Japan. The simulation showed that this tendency would continue until the late 1990s, presumably due to the increase in the proportion of ever-smokers in that cohort, who started smoking at an earlier age than did prior generations. It was shown that the number of lung cancer deaths can be reduced either by smoking cessation or screening programs, and that the reduction is proportional to the increase in the annual smoking-cessation rate and to the annual increment in the screening rate. However, only two to three percent reduction of lung cancer deaths in the year 2001 can be expected when the annual smoking-cessation rate is raised from the current value of 0.46 percent to five percent during the period from 1991 to 2000 or when the screening rate is increased by three percent annually for the same period.