Manjusha Kulkarni1,2, Randi E Foraker2, Ann M McNeill3, Cynthia Girman4,5, Sherita H Golden6, Wayne D Rosamond7, Bruce Duncan8, Maria Ines Schmidt8, Jaakko Tuomilehto9,10,11,12. 1. Division of Medical Laboratory Science, School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 2. Division of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 3. Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Whitehouse Station, New Jersey. 4. CERobs Consulting, LLC, Chapel Hill, North Carolina. 5. Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, UNC, Chapel Hill, North Carolina. 6. Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland. 7. Department of Epidemiology, Gillings Global School of Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina. 8. Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. 9. Chronic Disease Prevention Unit, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland. 10. Centre for Vascular Prevention, Danube-University Krems, Krems, Austria. 11. Dasman Diabetes Institute, Safat, Kuwait. 12. Diabetes Research Group, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a modified Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) for predicting the risk of incident diabetes among white and black middle-aged participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We assessed 9754 ARIC cohort participants who were free of diabetes at baseline. Logistic regression and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate a modified FINDRISC for predicting incident diabetes after 9 years of follow-up, overall and by race/gender group. The modified FINDRISC used comprised age, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure medication and family history. RESULTS: The mean FINDRISC (range, 2 [lowest risk] to 17 [highest risk]) for black women was higher (9.9 ± 3.6) than that for black men (7.6 ± 3.9), white women (8.0 ± 3.6) and white men (7.6 ± 3.5). The incidence of diabetes increased generally across deciles of FINDRISC for all 4 race/gender groups. ROC curve statistics for the FINDRISC showed the highest area under the curve for white women (0.77) and the lowest for black men (0.70). CONCLUSIONS: We used a modified FINDRISC to predict the 9-year risk of incident diabetes in a biracial US population. The modified risk score can be useful for early screening of incident diabetes in biracial populations, which may be helpful for early interventions to delay or prevent diabetes.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a modified Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) for predicting the risk of incident diabetes among white and black middle-aged participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We assessed 9754 ARIC cohort participants who were free of diabetes at baseline. Logistic regression and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate a modified FINDRISC for predicting incident diabetes after 9 years of follow-up, overall and by race/gender group. The modified FINDRISC used comprised age, body mass index, waist circumference, blood pressure medication and family history. RESULTS: The mean FINDRISC (range, 2 [lowest risk] to 17 [highest risk]) for black women was higher (9.9 ± 3.6) than that for black men (7.6 ± 3.9), white women (8.0 ± 3.6) and white men (7.6 ± 3.5). The incidence of diabetes increased generally across deciles of FINDRISC for all 4 race/gender groups. ROC curve statistics for the FINDRISC showed the highest area under the curve for white women (0.77) and the lowest for black men (0.70). CONCLUSIONS: We used a modified FINDRISC to predict the 9-year risk of incident diabetes in a biracial US population. The modified risk score can be useful for early screening of incident diabetes in biracial populations, which may be helpful for early interventions to delay or prevent diabetes.
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