| Literature DB >> 28288626 |
Thomas F Baumert1,2,3, Frank Jühling1,2, Atsushi Ono4,5, Yujin Hoshida6.
Abstract
Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of hepatocellular carcinoma worldwide. Interferon has been the major antiviral treatment, yielding viral clearance in approximately half of patients. New direct-acting antivirals substantially improved the cure rate to above 90%. However, access to therapies remains limited due to the high costs and under-diagnosis of infection in specific subpopulations, e.g., baby boomers, inmates, and injection drug users, and therefore, hepatocellular carcinoma incidence is predicted to increase in the next decades even in high-resource countries. Moreover, cancer risk persists even after 10 years of viral cure, and thus a clinical strategy for its monitoring is urgently needed. Several risk-predictive host factors, e.g., advanced liver fibrosis, older age, accompanying metabolic diseases such as diabetes, persisting hepatic inflammation, and elevated alpha-fetoprotein, as well as viral factors, e.g., core protein variants and genotype 3, have been reported. Indeed, a molecular signature in the liver has been associated with cancer risk even after viral cure. Direct-acting antivirals may affect cancer development and recurrence, which needs to be determined in further investigation.Entities:
Keywords: Direct-acting antivirals; Hepatitis C virus; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Interferon; Sustained virologic response
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2017 PMID: 28288626 PMCID: PMC5348895 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-017-0815-7
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Med ISSN: 1741-7015 Impact factor: 11.150
Fig. 1Natural history of HCV-related HCC development and modulation by anti-HCV therapies. Progressive liver fibrosis along with aging gradually increases the risk of hepatocarcinogenesis, which could be further accelerated by several host and viral risk factors. Annual incidences of HCC development and recurrence after DAA-based SVR were estimated from retrospective and prospective studies summarized in Table 1. SVR induced by interferon- or DAA-based anti-HCV therapies may result in distinct post-SVR HCC risk. AFP alpha-fetoprotein, DAA direct-acting antiviral, HCV hepatitis C virus, HCC hepatocellular carcinoma, SVR sustained virologic response
Incidence of post-sustained virologic response (SVR) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development and recurrence
| Author (year), Reference | Major race | Country | Type of anti-HCV therapy | n | Follow-up, median, years | Male sex, n (%) | Age, median, years | Advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis, n (%) | Treatment for previous HCC | Reported HCC incidence in SVR, % (interval in years) | Annual HCC incidence in SVR, % | Reported HCC incidence in non-SVR, % (interval in years) | Annual HCC incidence in non-SVR, % | Study design |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC development | ||||||||||||||
| Akuta (2011) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 1273 | 1.1 | 783 (61.5) | 53 | 109 (8.6) | – | 3.2 (5) | 0.65 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Chang (2012) [ | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 1271 (including 400 non-SVR) | 3.4 | 661 (75.9) | 55.4a | 355 (27.9) | – | 1.2 (3) | 0.4 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Huang (2014) [ | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 642 | 4.4 | 302 (54.3) | 51.4a | 86 (13.4) | – | 5.8 (5) | 1.2 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Yamashita (2014) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 562 | 4.8 | 311 (55.3) | 57 | 129 (23.0) | – | 3.1 (5) | 0.63 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Oze (2014) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 1425 | 3.3 | 727 (51.0) | 54.5 | 118 (11.6) | – | 2.6 (5) | 0.53 | 11.7 (5) | 2.49 | Prospective |
| Toyoda (2015) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 522 | 7.2 | 292 (55.9) | 50.6 | 27 (5.5) | – | 1.2 (5) | 0.24 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Wang (2016) [ | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 376 | 7.6 | 185 (49.2) | 54.1 | 127 (33.8) | – | 1.4 (5) | 0.28 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Kobayashi (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 528 | 7.3 | 308 (58.4) | 54 | 78 (14.8) | – | 2.2 (5) | 0.44 | – | – | Retrospective |
| El-Serag (2016) [ | Caucasian | USA | IFN-based | 10,738 | 2.8 | 10,232 (95.3) | 53.1a | 1548 (14.4) | – | 0.33 (5) | 0.07 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Nagaoki (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 1094 | 4.2 | 585 (53.5) | 60 | 208 (1.9) | – | 4.0 (5) | 0.82 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Tada (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 587 | 14.0 | 324 (55.2) | 50 | – | – | 4.4 (10) | 0.45 | 14.7 (10) | 1.59 | Retrospective |
| Tada (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 170 | 14.2 | 106 (62.4) | 52.5 | – | – | 7.1 (10) | 0.74 | – | – | Retrospective |
| van der Meer (2016) [ | Caucasian | Europe and Canada | IFN-based | 1000 | 5.7 | 676 (68.0) | 52.7 | 842 (85.0) | – | 7.6 (8) | 0.99 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Kobayashi (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | DAAs | 77 | 4.0 | 34 (44.2) | 63 | 23 (29.9) | – | 3.0 (5) | 0.62 | – | – | Retrospective |
| HCC development or recurrence | ||||||||||||||
| Conti (2016) [ | Caucasian | Italy | DAAs | 344 (59 had previous HCC, including 30 non-SVR) | 0.5 | 207 (60.1) | 63 | 39 (11.3) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 3.2 (0.5)d | 6.3d | – | – | Retrospective |
| Cheung (2016) [ | Caucasian | UK | DAAs | 317 (18 had previous HCC) | 1.3 | NA | 54 | 254 (80.1) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 5.4 (1.3) | 4.27 | 11.2 (1.3) | 9.14 | Prospective |
| HCC recurrence | ||||||||||||||
| Saito (2014) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 14 | 3.9 | 13 (92.9%) | 72 | 12 (85.7) | Resection, ablation | 18.0 (3) | 6.62 | 75.3 (3) | 46.61 | Retrospective |
| Huang (2015) [ | Asian | Taiwan | IFN-based | 56 | 4.4 | 36 (64.3) | 61.6 | 21 (37.5) | Resection, ablation | 43.2b | – | 84.8b | – | Retrospective |
| Kunimoto (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 40 | 5.1 | 35 (87.5%) | 65 | 14 (35.0) | Resection, ablation | 23.0 (3) | 8.71 | 56.0 (3) | 27.37 | Retrospective |
| Petta (2016) [ | Caucasian | Italy | IFN-based | 57 | 2.8 | 41 (72.0) | 62 | 0 | Resection, ablation | 15.2 (2) | 8.24 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Minami (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | IFN-based | 38 | – | 27 (71.0) | 66 | 0 | Ablation | 52.9 (2) | 37.6 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Conti (2016) [ | Caucasian | Italy | DAAs | 59 (including 6 non-SVR) | 0.5 | 40 (67.8) | 72 | 10 (16.9) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 28.8d (0.5) | 49.3d | – | – | Retrospective |
| Reig (2016) [ | Caucasian | Spain | DAAs | 58 | 0.5 | 40 (69.0) | 66.3 | 5 (8.6) | Resection, ablation, TACE | 27.6d (0.5) | 47.6d | – | – | Retrospective |
| ANRS study group (2016) [ | Caucasian | France | DAAs | 189 (including 41 non-SVR) | 2.2 | 147 (78.0) | 62a | 152 (80.0) | Resection, ablation, LT | 0.73b,d | 8.76c,d | 0.66b,e | 7.92c,e | Prospective |
| ANRS study group (2016) [ | Caucasian | France | DAAs | 13 | 1.8 | 11 (85.0) | 61a | 13 (100) | Resection, ablation | 1.1b | 13.3c | 1.7b,e | 20.76c,e | Prospective |
| ANRS study group (2016) [ | Caucasian | France | DAAs | 314 | – | 257 (82.0) | 61a | 49 (15.6) | LT | 2.2 (0.5) | 4.4 | – | – | Prospective |
| Petta (2016) [ | Caucasian | Italy | DAAs | 58 | 1.5 | 40 (69.0) | 66.3 | 2 (4.0) | Resection, ablation | 26.3 (2) | 15.3 | – | – | Retrospective |
| Minami (2016) [ | Asian | Japan | DAAs | 27 | – | 18 (67.0) | 71 | 0 | Ablation | 29.8 (2) | 17.7 | – | – | Retrospective |
When not reported, annual HCC incidence was estimated by using the declining exponential approximation of life expectancy [67]
aMean
b100 person-month
c100 person-year
dIncidence in patients including non-SVR patients
eIncidence in patients not treated by anti-HCV therapy
DAA direct-acting antiviral, HCC hepatocellular carcinoma, HCV hepatitis C virus, IFN interferon, LT liver transplantation, SVR sustained virologic response, TACE transarterial chemoembolization
Host and viral risk factors for post-sustained virologic response (SVR) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development (summarized from multivariable Cox regression models)
| Risk factor | Variable |
| Country | Follow-up, median, years | Hazard ratio | 95% CI |
| Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Host factor | Fibrosis | ||||||||
| Pre-SVR | |||||||||
| Histological stage F2-4 | 562 | Japan | 4.8 | 10.7 | 2.2–192.1 | <0.001 | [ | ||
| Histological stage, F3-4 | 1273 | Japan | 1.1 | 9.0 | 2.3–35.2 | 0.002 | [ | ||
| Histological stage, F3-4 | 1094 | Japan | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6–7.2 | <0.001 | [ | ||
| Histological stage, F3-4 | 376 | Taiwan | 7.6 | 12.8 | 1.6–101.9 | 0.021 | [ | ||
| Histological stage, F3-4 | 871 | Taiwan | 3.4 | 4.0 | 1.5–10.7 | 0.007 | [ | ||
| Platelet, < 150 × 103/mm3 | 1056 | Japan | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1–7.2 | 0.04 | [ | ||
| Platelet, < 150 × 103/mm3 | 871 | Taiwan | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2–6.4 | 0.015 | [ | ||
| Platelet, < 150 × 103/mm3 | 1000 | Europe and Canada | 5.7 | 1.1 | 1.0–1.1 | 0.029 | [ | ||
| Albumin, < 35 g/dL | 399 | Sweden | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.3–14.7 | 0.016 | [ | ||
| Liver cirrhosis, yes | 1351 | Taiwan | 4.0 | 8.4 | 4.1–17.0 | <0.001 | [ | ||
| Liver cirrhosis, yes | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2–9.0 | – | [ | ||
| Post-SVR | |||||||||
| FIB-4 index, high | 522 | Japan | 7.2 | 1.7 | 1.1–2.9 | 0.02 | [ | ||
| APRI ≥ 0.7 | 1351 | Taiwan | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.5–5.7 | 0.002 | [ | ||
| Elastography liver stiffness > 12 kPa | 376 | Taiwan | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.1–19.5 | 0.001 | [ | ||
| Liver cirrhosis, yes | 10,738 | USA | 2.8 | 6.7 | 4.3–10.4 | <0.001 | [ | ||
| Platelet, < 130 × 103/mm3 | 571 | Japan | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.5–10.1 | 0.004 | [ | ||
| Age, years | ≥50 | 562 | Japan | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.4–17.4 | <0.01 | [ | |
| ≥55 | 571 | Japan | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.4–9.6 | 0.009 | [ | ||
| ≥60 | 642 | Taiwan | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.3–10.2 | 0.012 | [ | ||
| ≥60 | 871 | Taiwan | 3.4 | 3.8 | 1.7–8.4 | 0.001 | [ | ||
| ≥60 | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.3–15.3 | – | [ | ||
| >60 | 1094 | Japan | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.3–6.6 | 0.009 | [ | ||
| >60 | 1056 | Japan | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3–7.4 | 0.01 | [ | ||
| >60 | 1000 | Europe and Canada | 5.7 | 9.8 | 1.2–77.8 | 0.031 | [ | ||
| ≥65 | 1425 | Japan | 3.3 | 5.8 | 1.1–30.1 | 0.036 | [ | ||
| ≥65 | 1351 | Taiwan | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2–6.3 | 0.017 | [ | ||
| ≥65 | 10,738 | USA | 2.8 | 4.5 | 2.0–10.4 | <0.001 | [ | ||
| Older | 589 | Taiwan | 4.7 | 1.1 | 1.0–1.1 | 0.046 | [ | ||
| Sex | Male | 1094 | Japan | 4.2 | 12.0 | 2.8–50.0 | <0.001 | [ | |
| Male | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.1–9.6 | – | [ | ||
| Male | 571 | Japan | 9.0 | 7.6 | 1.7–33.1 | 0.007 | [ | ||
| Diabetes | Yes | 522 | Japan | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.1–4.0 | 0.045 | [ | |
| Yes | 376 | Taiwan | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.3–12.1 | 0.021 | [ | ||
| Yes | 399 | Sweden | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.1–9.6 | 0.035 | [ | ||
| Yes | 10,738 | USA | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.2–2.9 | 0.005 | [ | ||
| Yes | 1000 | Europe and Canada | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.0–5.3 | 0.057 | [ | ||
| Yes | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.6–4.0 | – | [ | ||
| Yes | 589 | Taiwan | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.4–10.1 | 0.008 | [ | ||
| Elixhauser comorbidity index | Yes (≥1) | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 2.2 | 1.0–5.1 | – | [ | |
| Alpha-fetoprotein, ng/mL | |||||||||
| Pre-SVR | ≥8 | 562 | Japan | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.2–6.1 | <0.05 | [ | |
| ≥15 | 1351 | Taiwan | 4.0 | 1.9 | 1.0–3.6 | 0.038 | [ | ||
| ≥20 | 871 | Taiwan | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.6–6.2 | 0.001 | [ | ||
| Post-SVR | ≥5 | 1425 | Japan | 3.3 | 8.1 | 2.7–23.9 | <0.001 | [ | |
| ≥5 | 571 | Japan | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.4–9.6 | 0.009 | [ | ||
| ≥15 | 1351 | Taiwan | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0–5.3 | 0.043 | [ | ||
| ≥10 | 1094 | Japan | 4.2 | 7.8 | 2.9–16.8 | <0.001 | [ | ||
| Race/ethnicity | Hispanic | 10,738 | USA | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.1–4.8 | 0.032 | [ | |
| Alcohol abuse | Yes | 562 | Japan | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.7–9.0 | <0.01 | [ | |
| Yes | 10,738 | USA | 2.8 | 1.7 | 1.1–2.6 | 0.021 | [ | ||
| Yes | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.34–3.3 | – | [ | ||
| Illicit drug use | Yes | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.0–14.3 | – | [ | |
| AST | >100 IU/L | 1056 | Japan | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3–7.3 | 0.01 | [ | |
| AST/ALT ratio | >0.72 | 1000 | Europe and Canada | 5.7 | 1.0 | 1.0–1.1 | 0.068 | [ | |
| GGT | >75 U/L | 642 | Taiwan | 4.4 | 6.4 | 2.2–18.9 | 0.001 | [ | |
| Viral factor | Genotype 1b with Gln70 (His70) variant | 1273 | Japan | 1.1 | 10.5 | 2.9–38.2 | <0.001 | [ | |
| Genotype 3 | 10,738 | USA | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.0–2.7 | 0.071 | [ | ||
| Genotype 3 | 4663 | Canada | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.58–3.4 | – | [ |
All data are from interferon-based studies
APRI aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, ALT alanine aminotransferase, AST aspartate aminotransferase, FIB-4 fibrosis-4, GGT gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, HCV hepatitis C virus, HCC hepatocellular carcinoma, SVR sustained virologic response