Ross J Harris1, Brenda Thomas2, Jade Griffiths2, Annastella Costella2, Ruth Chapman3, Mary Ramsay2, Daniela De Angelis4, Helen E Harris5. 1. Statistics, Modelling and Bioinformatics Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom. 2. Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom. 3. United BioSource Corporation, 26-28 Hammersmith Grove, London W6 7HA, United Kingdom. 4. Statistics, Modelling and Bioinformatics Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom; MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge Institute of Public Health, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0SR, United Kingdom. 5. Immunisation, Hepatitis and Blood Safety Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, United Kingdom. Electronic address: helen.harris@phe.org.uk.
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C (HCV) related disease in England is predicted to rise, and it is unclear whether treatment at current levels will be able to avert this. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of people with chronic HCV infection in England that are treated and assess the impact and costs of increasing treatment uptake. METHODS: Numbers treated were estimated using national data sources for pegylated interferon supplied, dispensed, or purchased from 2006 to 2011. A back-calculation approach was used to project disease burden over the next 30 years and determine outcomes under various scenarios of treatment uptake. RESULTS: 5000 patients were estimated to have been treated in 2011 and 28,000 in total from 2006 to 2011; approximately 3.1% and 17% respectively of estimated chronic infections. Without treatment, incident cases of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were predicted to increase until 2035 and reach 2290 cases per year. Treatment at current levels should reduce incidence by 600 cases per year, with a peak around 2030. Large increases in treatment are needed to halt the rise; and with more effective treatment the best case scenario predicts incidence of around 500 cases in 2030, although treatment uptake must still be increased considerably to achieve this. CONCLUSIONS: If the infected population is left untreated, the number of patients with severe HCV-related disease will continue to increase and represent a substantial future burden on healthcare resources. This can be mitigated by increasing treatment uptake, which will have the greatest impact if implemented quickly.
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C (HCV) related disease in England is predicted to rise, and it is unclear whether treatment at current levels will be able to avert this. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of people with chronic HCV infection in England that are treated and assess the impact and costs of increasing treatment uptake. METHODS: Numbers treated were estimated using national data sources for pegylated interferon supplied, dispensed, or purchased from 2006 to 2011. A back-calculation approach was used to project disease burden over the next 30 years and determine outcomes under various scenarios of treatment uptake. RESULTS: 5000 patients were estimated to have been treated in 2011 and 28,000 in total from 2006 to 2011; approximately 3.1% and 17% respectively of estimated chronic infections. Without treatment, incident cases of decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma were predicted to increase until 2035 and reach 2290 cases per year. Treatment at current levels should reduce incidence by 600 cases per year, with a peak around 2030. Large increases in treatment are needed to halt the rise; and with more effective treatment the best case scenario predicts incidence of around 500 cases in 2030, although treatment uptake must still be increased considerably to achieve this. CONCLUSIONS: If the infected population is left untreated, the number of patients with severe HCV-related disease will continue to increase and represent a substantial future burden on healthcare resources. This can be mitigated by increasing treatment uptake, which will have the greatest impact if implemented quickly.
Authors: Elizabeth Hancock; Zoe Ward; Rachel Ayres; Jane Neale; Deborah Hussey; Joanna May Kesten; Matthew Hickman; Peter Vickerman Journal: Addiction Date: 2019-11-19 Impact factor: 6.526
Authors: Juan C Lopez-Delgado; Josep Ballus; Francisco Esteve; Nelson L Betancur-Zambrano; Vicente Corral-Velez; Rafael Mañez; Antoni J Betbese; Joan A Roncal; Casimiro Javierre Journal: World J Gastroenterol Date: 2016-03-07 Impact factor: 5.742
Authors: Hannah Fraser; Natasha K Martin; Henrikki Brummer-Korvenkontio; Patrizia Carrieri; Olav Dalgard; John Dillon; David Goldberg; Sharon Hutchinson; Marie Jauffret-Roustide; Martin Kåberg; Amy A Matser; Mojca Matičič; Havard Midgard; Viktor Mravcik; Anne Øvrehus; Maria Prins; Jens Reimer; Geert Robaeys; Bernd Schulte; Daniela K van Santen; Ruth Zimmermann; Peter Vickerman; Matthew Hickman Journal: J Hepatol Date: 2018-01-08 Impact factor: 25.083