Daniel J Henning1, Michael A Puskarich2, Wesley H Self3, Michael D Howell4, Michael W Donnino5, Donald M Yealy6, Alan E Jones2, Nathan I Shapiro7. 1. Division of Emergency Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. 2. Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Mississippi, Jackson, MS. 3. Department of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt, Nashville, TN. 4. Center for Healthcare Delivery Science and Innovation, University of Chicago Medicine, Chicago, IL. 5. Department of Emergency Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA; Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA. 6. Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Pittsburgh and UPMC, Pittsburgh, PA. 7. Department of Emergency Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA. Electronic address: nshapiro@bidmc.harvard.edu.
Abstract
STUDY OBJECTIVE: The Third International Consensus Definitions Task Force (SEP-3) proposed revised criteria defining sepsis and septic shock. We seek to evaluate the performance of the SEP-3 definitions for prediction of inhospital mortality in an emergency department (ED) population and compare the performance of the SEP-3 definitions to that of the previous definitions. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of 3 prospectively collected, observational cohorts of infected ED subjects aged 18 years or older. The primary outcome was all-cause inhospital mortality. In accordance with the SEP-3 definitions, we calculated test characteristics of sepsis (quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [qSOFA] score ≥2) and septic shock (vasopressor dependence plus lactate level >2.0 mmol/L) for mortality and compared them to the original 1992 consensus definitions. RESULTS: We identified 7,754 ED patients with suspected infection overall; 117 had no documented mental status evaluation, leaving 7,637 patients included in the analysis. The mortality rate for the overall population was 4.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.9% to 4.9%). The mortality rate for patients with qSOFA score greater than or equal to 2 was 14.2% (95% CI 12.2% to 16.2%), with a sensitivity of 52% (95% CI 46% to 57%) and specificity of 86% (95% CI 85% to 87%) to predict mortality. The original systemic inflammatory response syndrome-based 1992 consensus sepsis definition had a 6.8% (95% CI 6.0% to 7.7%) mortality rate, sensitivity of 83% (95% CI 79% to 87%), and specificity of 50% (95% CI 49% to 51%). The SEP-3 septic shock mortality was 23% (95% CI 16% to 30%), with a sensitivity of 12% (95% CI 11% to 13%) and specificity of 98.4% (95% CI 98.1% to 98.7%). The original 1992 septic shock definition had a 22% (95% CI 17% to 27%) mortality rate, sensitivity of 23% (95% CI 18% to 28%), and specificity of 96.6% (95% CI 96.2% to 97.0%). CONCLUSION: Both the new SEP-3 and original sepsis definitions stratify ED patients at risk for mortality, albeit with differing performances. In terms of mortality prediction, the SEP-3 definitions had improved specificity, but at the cost of sensitivity. Use of either approach requires a clearly intended target: more sensitivity versus specificity.
STUDY OBJECTIVE: The Third International Consensus Definitions Task Force (SEP-3) proposed revised criteria defining sepsis and septic shock. We seek to evaluate the performance of the SEP-3 definitions for prediction of inhospital mortality in an emergency department (ED) population and compare the performance of the SEP-3 definitions to that of the previous definitions. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of 3 prospectively collected, observational cohorts of infected ED subjects aged 18 years or older. The primary outcome was all-cause inhospital mortality. In accordance with the SEP-3 definitions, we calculated test characteristics of sepsis (quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [qSOFA] score ≥2) and septic shock (vasopressor dependence plus lactate level >2.0 mmol/L) for mortality and compared them to the original 1992 consensus definitions. RESULTS: We identified 7,754 ED patients with suspected infection overall; 117 had no documented mental status evaluation, leaving 7,637 patients included in the analysis. The mortality rate for the overall population was 4.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.9% to 4.9%). The mortality rate for patients with qSOFA score greater than or equal to 2 was 14.2% (95% CI 12.2% to 16.2%), with a sensitivity of 52% (95% CI 46% to 57%) and specificity of 86% (95% CI 85% to 87%) to predict mortality. The original systemic inflammatory response syndrome-based 1992 consensus sepsis definition had a 6.8% (95% CI 6.0% to 7.7%) mortality rate, sensitivity of 83% (95% CI 79% to 87%), and specificity of 50% (95% CI 49% to 51%). The SEP-3septic shock mortality was 23% (95% CI 16% to 30%), with a sensitivity of 12% (95% CI 11% to 13%) and specificity of 98.4% (95% CI 98.1% to 98.7%). The original 1992 septic shock definition had a 22% (95% CI 17% to 27%) mortality rate, sensitivity of 23% (95% CI 18% to 28%), and specificity of 96.6% (95% CI 96.2% to 97.0%). CONCLUSION: Both the new SEP-3 and original sepsis definitions stratify ED patients at risk for mortality, albeit with differing performances. In terms of mortality prediction, the SEP-3 definitions had improved specificity, but at the cost of sensitivity. Use of either approach requires a clearly intended target: more sensitivity versus specificity.
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