Ruyang Zhang1,2,3, Zhaoxi Wang1, Paula Tejera1, Angela J Frank4, Yongyue Wei2,3, Li Su1, Zhaozhong Zhu1, Yichen Guo1, Feng Chen2,3, Ednan K Bajwa4, B Taylor Thompson4, David C Christiani5,6,7. 1. Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Pulmonary and Critical Care Division, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, 665 Hunting Avenue, Building I Room 1401, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. 2. Department of Biostatistics, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Modern Toxicology, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. 3. Joint Laboratory of Health and Environmental Risk Assessment (HERA), Nanjing Medical University School of Public Health/Harvard School of Public Health, Nanjing, China. 4. Pulmonary and Critical Care Division, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. 5. Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Pulmonary and Critical Care Division, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, 665 Hunting Avenue, Building I Room 1401, Boston, MA, 02115, USA. dchris@hsph.harvard.edu. 6. Joint Laboratory of Health and Environmental Risk Assessment (HERA), Nanjing Medical University School of Public Health/Harvard School of Public Health, Nanjing, China. dchris@hsph.harvard.edu. 7. Pulmonary and Critical Care Division, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. dchris@hsph.harvard.edu.
Abstract
PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) onset time and prognosis. METHODS:Patients with moderate to severe ARDS (N = 876) were randomly assigned into derivation (N = 520) and validation (N = 356) datasets. Both 28-day and 60-day survival times after ARDS onset were analyzed. A data-driven cutoff point between early- and late-onset ARDS was determined on the basis of mortality risk effects of onset times. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) of late-onset ARDS using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model of survival time and a multivariate logistic regression model of mortality rate, respectively. RESULTS:Late-onset ARDS, defined as onset over 48 h after intensive care unit (ICU) admission (N = 273, 31%), was associated with shorter 28-day survival time: HR = 2.24, 95% CI 1.48-3.39, P = 1.24 × 10-4 (derivation); HR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.33-3.51, P = 1.95 × 10-3 (validation); and HR = 2.00, 95% CI 1.47-2.72, P = 1.10 × 10-5 (combined dataset). Late-onset ARDS was also associated with shorter 60-day survival time: HR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.16-2.48, P = 6.62 × 10-3 (derivation); HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.15-2.75, P = 9.80 × 10-3 (validation); and HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.20-2.10, P = 1.22 × 10-3 (combined dataset). Meanwhile, late-onset ARDS was associated with higher 28-day mortality rate (OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.04-2.06, P = 0.0305) and 60-day mortality rate (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.02, P = 0.0313). CONCLUSIONS: Late-onset moderate to severe ARDS patients had both shorter survival time and higher mortality rate in 28-day and 60-day observations.
RCT Entities:
PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) onset time and prognosis. METHODS:Patients with moderate to severe ARDS (N = 876) were randomly assigned into derivation (N = 520) and validation (N = 356) datasets. Both 28-day and 60-day survival times after ARDS onset were analyzed. A data-driven cutoff point between early- and late-onset ARDS was determined on the basis of mortality risk effects of onset times. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and odds ratio (OR) of late-onset ARDS using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model of survival time and a multivariate logistic regression model of mortality rate, respectively. RESULTS: Late-onset ARDS, defined as onset over 48 h after intensive care unit (ICU) admission (N = 273, 31%), was associated with shorter 28-day survival time: HR = 2.24, 95% CI 1.48-3.39, P = 1.24 × 10-4 (derivation); HR = 2.16, 95% CI 1.33-3.51, P = 1.95 × 10-3 (validation); and HR = 2.00, 95% CI 1.47-2.72, P = 1.10 × 10-5 (combined dataset). Late-onset ARDS was also associated with shorter 60-day survival time: HR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.16-2.48, P = 6.62 × 10-3 (derivation); HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.15-2.75, P = 9.80 × 10-3 (validation); and HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.20-2.10, P = 1.22 × 10-3 (combined dataset). Meanwhile, late-onset ARDS was associated with higher 28-day mortality rate (OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.04-2.06, P = 0.0305) and 60-day mortality rate (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.02, P = 0.0313). CONCLUSIONS: Late-onset moderate to severe ARDSpatients had both shorter survival time and higher mortality rate in 28-day and 60-day observations.
Entities:
Keywords:
ARDS; Cox proportional hazards model; Early and late onset; Logistic regression model; Mortality rate; Overall survival time
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