Evidence of Criterion Validity for One Pharmacy School's Progress Examination Program.

Objective. To provide evidence that the progress examination program accurately assesses student failure to demonstrate competence. Methods. A progress examination program aligned with each grade level was locally developed and administered annually to 289 PharmD students in the spring of their first year - fourth year. Correlations and linear regressions were performed to compare the examination scores to performance on national licensing examinations and cumulative didactic grade point average (GPA). Odds ratio analysis was run to determine the ability of the passing scores of the progress examination to identify students at increased risk of failing to graduate on time, earn a GPA below 3.0, and fail the licensing examinations on their first attempt. Results. Progress examination scores were strongly correlated to GPA and national licensing examination scores and weakly correlated to jurisprudence examination scores. Regression analysis indicated a significant linear relationship between examination scores and both GPA and the licensing examinations. Students who performed poorly on the progress examinations were more likely fail the national licensing examination, more likely to fail to graduate on time, and more likely to earn a cumulative didactic GPA below 3.0. Conclusions. The second-year examination program strongly predicts students at risk for failure to graduate on time or achieve a GPA below 3.0, while all four examinations identify students at risk of failing the national licensing examination on their first attempt.