| Literature DB >> 27845737 |
Liang Wu1,2, Fei Deng3, Zhong Xie4,5, Sheng Hu6, Shu Shen7, Junming Shi8, Dan Liu9.
Abstract
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is caused by severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), which has had a serious impact on public health in parts of Asia. There is no specific antiviral drug or vaccine for SFTSV and, therefore, it is important to determine the factors that influence the occurrence of SFTSV infections. This study aimed to explore the spatial associations between SFTSV infections and several potential determinants, and to predict the high-risk areas in mainland China. The analysis was carried out at the level of provinces in mainland China. The potential explanatory variables that were investigated consisted of meteorological factors (average temperature, average monthly precipitation and average relative humidity), the average proportion of rural population and the average proportion of primary industries over three years (2010-2012). We constructed a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model in order to explore the associations between the selected variables and confirmed cases of SFTSV. The study showed that: (1) meteorological factors have a strong influence on the SFTSV cover; (2) a GWLR model is suitable for exploring SFTSV cover in mainland China; (3) our findings can be used for predicting high-risk areas and highlighting when meteorological factors pose a risk in order to aid in the implementation of public health strategies.Entities:
Keywords: GWLR; SFTSV; public health; spatial analysis
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 27845737 PMCID: PMC5129335 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13111125
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 3.390
Units of the variables.
| AT | AMP | ARH | APRP | APPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit | °C | mm | % | % | % |
AT = average temperature; AMP = average monthly precipitation; ARH = average relative humidity; APRP = average proportion of rural population; APPI = average proportion of primary industries.
Figure 1Geographical distribution of SFTSV in mainland China from 2010 to 2012. SFTSV = severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus.
Figure 2Study flow chart. AMP = average monthly precipitation; APPI = average proportion of primary industries; SFTS = severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome; APRP = average proportion of rural population; ARH = average relative humidity; AT = average temperature; GWLR = geographically weighted logistic regression; LR = logistic regression; SFTSV = severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus.
Figure 3Spatial distribution of the five potential determinants of SFTSV cover: (a) Average temperature (AT) from 2010 to 2012; (b) Average monthly precipitation (AMP) from 2010 to 2012; (c) Average relative humidity (ARH) from 2010 to 2012; (d) Average proportion of rural population (APRP) from 2010 to 2012; and (e) Average proportion of primary industries (APPI) from 2010 to 2012.
Figure 4Regional distribution of the confirmed cases of SFTSV, 2010–2012. The statistics were summarized from GenBank available data until 13 March 2016. The numbers were not the actual total numbers of cases confirmed by the Ministry of Health in China.
VIF scores of the variables.
| AT | AMP | ARH | APRP | APPI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIF score | 1.50 | 3.25 | 3.33 | 2.71 | 2.74 |
VIF = variance inflation factor; AT = average temperature; AMP = average monthly precipitation; ARH = average relative humidity; APRP = average proportion of rural population; APPI = average proportion of primary industries.
Measures of model fit.
| Test | A | B | C | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Type | LR | GWLR | LR | GWLR | LR | GWLR |
| AIC | 37.586 | 37.242 | 39.738 | 39.651 | 38.796 | 38.545 |
| AUC | 0.70 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.54 | 0.68 |
AIC = Akaike information criterion; AUC = area under the relative operating characteristic curve; GWLR = geographically weighted logistic regression; LR = logistic regression.
Summary statistics of the varying (local) coefficients.
| Coefficient Label | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Range | Standard Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | −3.324 | −1.218 | −1.506 | 2.106 | 0.426 |
| AT | 0.912 | 2.792 | 1.133 | 1.880 | 0.363 |
| AMP | −1.419 | −0.315 | −0.710 | 1.104 | 0.227 |
| ARH | 0.002 | 1.786 | 0.571 | 1.789 | 0.382 |
AMP = average monthly precipitation; ARH = average relative humidity; AT = average temperature.
Figure 5Spatial distribution of the local relationships between SFTSV cover and the three meteorological factors: (a) Estimated coefficient for average temperature; (b) Estimated coefficient for average monthly precipitation; and (c) Estimated coefficient for average relative humidity. SFTSV = severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus.
Categories of Estimated coefficients.
| Coefficient Label | Slight | Moderate | Strong |
|---|---|---|---|
| AT | 0.912–1.126 | 1.126–1.444 | 1.444–2.792 |
| AMP | −1.419–−0.902 | −0.902–−0.625 | −0.625–−0.315 |
| ARH | 0.003–0.300 | 0.300–0.772 | 0.772–1.786 |
AMP = average monthly precipitation; ARH = average relative humidity; AT = average temperature.
Figure 6Estimated probability of SFTSV cover in each province in mainland China.
Figure 7Classification of the provinces in mainland China according to the risk of SFTSV cover indicated by the three meteorological factors; AT = average temperature; AMP = average monthly precipitation; ARH = average relative humidity; SFTSV = severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus.
AT, AMP and ARH from 2010 to 2012 in the 13 provinces in China with high probabilities of SFTSV cover.
| Year | Coefficient Label | Mean | Minimum | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | AT (°C) | 25.2 | 23.3 | 26.8 |
| AMP (mm) | 430.4 | 81.0 | 686.2 | |
| ARH (%) | 69.2 | 49.1 | 78.3 | |
| 2011 | AT (°C) | 25.5 | 22.0 | 27.2 |
| AMP (mm) | 415.3 | 113.5 | 681.2 | |
| ARH (%) | 66.5 | 51.7 | 81.0 | |
| 2012 | AT (°C) | 25.9 | 22.8 | 27.7 |
| AMP (mm) | 415.3 | 113.5 | 681.2 | |
| ARH (%) | 68.2 | 52.7 | 81.0 |
AMP = average monthly precipitation; ARH = average relative humidity; AT = average temperature.