AIM: To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. METHODS: INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. RESULTS: Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations. CONCLUSION: New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.
AIM: To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. METHODS: INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. RESULTS: Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations. CONCLUSION: New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.
Authors: Lee M Hampton; Gaël Maufras du Châtellier; Jacqueline Fournier-Caruana; Ann Ottosen; Jennifer Rubin; Lisa Menning; Margaret Farrell; Stephanie Shendale; Manish Patel Journal: J Infect Dis Date: 2017-07-01 Impact factor: 5.226
Authors: Dominika A Kalkowska; Mark A Pallansch; Amanda Wilkinson; Ananda S Bandyopadhyay; Jennifer L Konopka-Anstadt; Cara C Burns; M Steven Oberste; Steven G F Wassilak; Kamran Badizadegan; Kimberly M Thompson Journal: Risk Anal Date: 2020-11-10 Impact factor: 4.000