Plateaus, Dips, and Leaps: Where to Look for Inventions and Discoveries During Skilled Performance.

The framework of plateaus, dips, and leaps shines light on periods when individuals may be inventing new methods of skilled performance. We begin with a review of the role performance plateaus have played in (a) experimental psychology, (b) human-computer interaction, and (c) cognitive science. We then reanalyze two classic studies of individual performance to show plateaus and dips which resulted in performance leaps. For a third study, we show how the statistical methods of Changepoint Analysis plus a few simple heuristics may direct our focus to periods of performance change for individuals. For the researcher, dips become the marker of exploration where performance suffers as new methods are invented and tested. Leaps mark the implementation of a successful new method and an incremental jump above the path plotted by smooth and steady log-log performance increments. The methods developed during these dips and leaps are the key to surpassing one's teachers and acquiring extreme expertise.