Signatures of local adaptation in candidate genes of oaks (Quercus spp.) with respect to present and future climatic conditions.

Testing how populations are locally adapted and predicting their response to their future environment is of key importance in view of climate change. Landscape genomics is a powerful approach to investigate genes and environmental factors involved in local adaptation. In a pooled amplicon sequencing approach of 94 genes in 71 populations, we tested whether >3500 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the three most common oak species in Switzerland (Quercus petraea, Q. pubescens, Q. robur) show an association with abiotic factors related to local topography, historical climate and soil characteristics. In the analysis including all species, the most frequently associated environmental factors were those best describing the habitats of the species. In the species-specific analyses, the most important environmental factors and associated SNPs greatly differed among species. However, we identified one SNP and seven genes that were associated with the same environmental factor across all species. We finally used regressions of allele frequencies of the most strongly associated SNPs along environmental gradients to predict the risk of nonadaptedness (RONA), which represents the average change in allele frequency at climate-associated loci theoretically required to match future climatic conditions. RONA is considerable for some populations and species (up to 48% in single populations) and strongly differs among species. Given the long generation time of oaks, some of the required allele frequency changes might not be realistic to achieve based on standing genetic variation. Hence, future adaptedness requires gene flow or planting of individuals carrying beneficial alleles from habitats currently matching future climatic conditions.