Anahita Dua1, Steven Koprowski2, Gilbert Upchurch3, Cheong J Lee2, Sapan S Desai4. 1. Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisc. Electronic address: andua@mcw.edu. 2. Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisc. 3. Division of Vascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Va. 4. Department of Vascular Surgery, Southern Illinois University, Springfield, Ill.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In 2014, we published a series of articles in the Journal of Vascular Surgery that detailed the decrease in volume of open aneurysm repair (OAR) completed for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) by vascular surgery trainees. At that time, only data points from 2000 through 2011 were available, and reliable predictions could only be made through 2015. Lack of data on endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) using fenestrated (FEVAR) and branched (BrEVAR) endografts also affected our findings. Despite these limitations, our predictions for OAR completed by vascular trainees were accurate for 2012 to 2014. This report uses updated data points through 2014 in conjunction with data on FEVAR and BrEVAR obtained from industry to predict trends in OAR and how it will affect vascular surgery training through 2020. METHODS: An S-curve modified logistic function was used to model the effect of introducing new technologies (EVAR, FEVAR, BrEVAR) on the standard management of AAA with OAR starting in the year 2000, similar to the technique that we have previously described. Weighted samples and data from the United States Census Bureau were used in conjunction with volume estimates derived from the National Inpatient Sample, State Inpatient Databases, and industry sources to determine trends in OAR and EVAR. The number of cases completed at teaching hospitals was calculated using the National Inpatient Sample, and Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education case logs were used to forecast the number of cases completed by vascular surgery trainees through 2020. Sensitivity analysis and trend analysis were completed. RESULTS: Approximately 45,000 AAA repairs are completed annually in the United States, but only 15% of these are now completed using OAR compared with >50% just a decade ago. Further, with the accelerating adoption of FEVAR and BrEVAR, and expanding indications for standard EVAR, our model predicts that <3000 OARs will be completed annually by 2020. Because only a subset of these cases are completed at teaching institutions, our model predicts that a vascular surgery trainee in a fellowship program will complete only one to two OARs, whereas trainees in a 0+5 program may complete two to three OARs. CONCLUSIONS: Our initial prediction in the 2014 report was that vascular trainees would complete approximately five OARs by 2020. After incorporating new data on BrEVAR, FEVAR, and the accelerating pace of EVAR use between 2012 and 2014, it now appears that vascular trainees will complete one to three OARs during their training.
BACKGROUND: In 2014, we published a series of articles in the Journal of Vascular Surgery that detailed the decrease in volume of open aneurysm repair (OAR) completed for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) by vascular surgery trainees. At that time, only data points from 2000 through 2011 were available, and reliable predictions could only be made through 2015. Lack of data on endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) using fenestrated (FEVAR) and branched (BrEVAR) endografts also affected our findings. Despite these limitations, our predictions for OAR completed by vascular trainees were accurate for 2012 to 2014. This report uses updated data points through 2014 in conjunction with data on FEVAR and BrEVAR obtained from industry to predict trends in OAR and how it will affect vascular surgery training through 2020. METHODS: An S-curve modified logistic function was used to model the effect of introducing new technologies (EVAR, FEVAR, BrEVAR) on the standard management of AAA with OAR starting in the year 2000, similar to the technique that we have previously described. Weighted samples and data from the United States Census Bureau were used in conjunction with volume estimates derived from the National Inpatient Sample, State Inpatient Databases, and industry sources to determine trends in OAR and EVAR. The number of cases completed at teaching hospitals was calculated using the National Inpatient Sample, and Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education case logs were used to forecast the number of cases completed by vascular surgery trainees through 2020. Sensitivity analysis and trend analysis were completed. RESULTS: Approximately 45,000 AAA repairs are completed annually in the United States, but only 15% of these are now completed using OAR compared with >50% just a decade ago. Further, with the accelerating adoption of FEVAR and BrEVAR, and expanding indications for standard EVAR, our model predicts that <3000 OARs will be completed annually by 2020. Because only a subset of these cases are completed at teaching institutions, our model predicts that a vascular surgery trainee in a fellowship program will complete only one to two OARs, whereas trainees in a 0+5 program may complete two to three OARs. CONCLUSIONS: Our initial prediction in the 2014 report was that vascular trainees would complete approximately five OARs by 2020. After incorporating new data on BrEVAR, FEVAR, and the accelerating pace of EVAR use between 2012 and 2014, it now appears that vascular trainees will complete one to three OARs during their training.
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