BACKGROUND: The most reliable index to predict the safety of hepatectomy for patients with poor liver function remains unknown. We aimed to construct a novel preoperative index to predict early liver failure (ELF) and mortality due to recurrence-free liver failure (MLF) after hepatectomy. METHODS: Between 2000 and 2012, 385 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing curative minor hepatectomy were divided into two sequential cohorts: training set (n = 143) and validation set (n = 242), and observed until 2015. RESULTS: Prothrombin time and direct bilirubin were independent predictors of both ELF and MLF in the training set. Thus we devised a novel index, the direct bilirubin to prothrombin time ratio index (DBPTRI). The areas under ROC curves of DBPTRI for predicting ELF and MLF were 0.78 and 0.93, respectively, in the validation set. Using a preoperative DBPTRI cut off of 4.2, we accurately predicted ELF and MLF in 86.8% and 88.4% of patients, respectively. DBPTRI was the best predictor of ELF and MLF when compared with conventional indices such as ICG-R15 and Child-Pugh score. Moreover, the 5-year overall survival rates of the patients with low and high DBPTRI were 59% and 36%, respectively (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: DBPTRI may serve as a simple, non-invasive index for estimating liver failure after hepatectomy.
BACKGROUND: The most reliable index to predict the safety of hepatectomy for patients with poor liver function remains unknown. We aimed to construct a novel preoperative index to predict early liver failure (ELF) and mortality due to recurrence-free liver failure (MLF) after hepatectomy. METHODS: Between 2000 and 2012, 385 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing curative minor hepatectomy were divided into two sequential cohorts: training set (n = 143) and validation set (n = 242), and observed until 2015. RESULTS: Prothrombin time and direct bilirubin were independent predictors of both ELF and MLF in the training set. Thus we devised a novel index, the direct bilirubin to prothrombin time ratio index (DBPTRI). The areas under ROC curves of DBPTRI for predicting ELF and MLF were 0.78 and 0.93, respectively, in the validation set. Using a preoperative DBPTRI cut off of 4.2, we accurately predicted ELF and MLF in 86.8% and 88.4% of patients, respectively. DBPTRI was the best predictor of ELF and MLF when compared with conventional indices such as ICG-R15 and Child-Pugh score. Moreover, the 5-year overall survival rates of the patients with low and high DBPTRI were 59% and 36%, respectively (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: DBPTRI may serve as a simple, non-invasive index for estimating liver failure after hepatectomy.