Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard1,2, William Hooton3, Julia Critchley4, Simon Capewell2, Marissa Collins5, Helen Mason5, Maria Guzman-Castillo2, Martin O'Flaherty2. 1. School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. 2. Division of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. 3. Pembroke College Alumni, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. 4. Population Health Research Institute, St George's, University of London, London, UK. 5. Yunus Centre of Social Business and Health, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK.
Abstract
Introduction: Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods: We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy 2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0. Results: Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100 m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions: Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings.
Introduction: Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods: We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy 2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0. Results: Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100 m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions: Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings.
Authors: Karl M F Emmert-Fees; Florian M Karl; Peter von Philipsborn; Eva A Rehfuess; Michael Laxy Journal: Adv Nutr Date: 2021-10-01 Impact factor: 8.701
Authors: Lirije Hyseni; Helen Bromley; Chris Kypridemos; Martin O'Flaherty; Ffion Lloyd-Williams; Maria Guzman-Castillo; Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard; Simon Capewell Journal: Bull World Health Organ Date: 2017-10-19 Impact factor: 9.408