Conny Vrieling1, Erik van Werkhoven2, Philippe Maingon3, Philip Poortmans4, Caroline Weltens5, Alain Fourquet6, Dominic Schinagl4, Bing Oei7, Carla C Rodenhuis8, Jean-Claude Horiot9, Henk Struikmans8, Erik Van Limbergen5, Youlia Kirova6, Paula Elkhuizen10, Rudolf Bongartz11, Raymond Miralbell12, David A L Morgan13, Jean-Bernard Dubois14, Vincent Remouchamps15, René-Olivier Mirimanoff16, Guus Hart2, Sandra Collette17, Laurence Collette17, Harry Bartelink10. 1. Department of Radiation Oncology, Clinique des Grangettes, Geneva, Switzerland. 2. Department of Biometrics, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands. 3. Department of Radiation Oncology, Centre Georges-François Leclerc, Dijon, France. 4. Department of Radiation Oncology, Radboud university medical center, Nijmegen, Netherlands. 5. Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospitals of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. 6. Department of Radiation Oncology, Institut Curie, Paris, France. 7. Department of Radiation Oncology, Institute Verbeeten, Tilburg, Netherlands. 8. Department of Radiation Oncology, Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands. 9. Department of Radiation Oncology, Clinique de Genolier, Genolier, Switzerland. 10. Department of Radiation Oncology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands. 11. Department of Radiation Oncology, Universitaetsklinikum Köln, Köln, Germany. 12. Division of Radiation Oncology, Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève, Geneva, Switzerland. 13. Department of Clinical Oncology, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK. 14. Institut Régional du Cancer Montpellier, Montpellier, France. 15. Department of Radiotherapy, Clinique et Maternité Sainte Elisabeth, Namur, Belgium. 16. Department of Radiotherapy, Clinique La Source, Lausanne, Switzerland. 17. EORTC Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium.
Abstract
IMPORTANCE: Prognostic factors of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) may change over time following breast-conserving therapy. OBJECTIVE: The EORTC "boost no boost" trial showed that young age and high-grade invasive carcinoma were the most important risk factors for IBTR. This study reanalyses pathological prognostic factors related to IBTR using long-term follow-up. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants included 5569 early-stage breast cancer patients, treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and whole-breast irradiation (WBI), who were randomized between no boost and a 16-Gy boost in the EORTC phase III "boost no boost" trial (1989-1996). A total of 1616 patients with a microscopically complete resection (according to local pathologists), included in the central pathology review, have been analyzed in this study. Median follow-up was 18.2 years. INTERVENTIONS: No further treatment or 16-Gy boost, after BCS and 50-Gy WBI. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Time to ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) as first event. RESULTS: The 20-year cumulative incidence of IBTR in 1616 patients (160 events observed) was 15% (95% CI, 12%-17%). Young age (P < .001) and presence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.36-3.38; P = .001) were associated with an increased risk of IBTR in multivariable analysis. The cumulative incidence of IBTR at 20 years was 34% (95% CI, 25%-41%), 14% (95% CI, 10%-18%), and 11% (95% CI, 8%-15%), in patients 40 years or younger, 41 to 50 years and 50 years or older, respectively (P < .001). This incidence was 18% (95% CI, 14%-22%) and 9% (95% CI, 6%-12%) for tumors with and without DCIS (P < .001). High-grade tumors relapsed more frequently early during follow-up but the relative effect of age and presence of DCIS seemed stable over time. The boost reduced the 20-year IBTR incidence from 31% (95% CI, 22%-39%) to 15% (95% CI, 8%-21%) (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.62; P < .001) in high-risk patients (≤50 years with DCIS present). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The association of high-grade invasive tumor with IBTR diminished during follow-up, while the effect of DCIS adjacent to invasive tumor seemed to remain stable. Therefore, patients with high-grade invasive tumors should be monitored closely, especially in the first 5 years, while additional DCIS is an indication for longer follow-up, emphasizing the importance of long-term trial follow-up to estimate absolute effects accurately. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02295033.
IMPORTANCE: Prognostic factors of ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) may change over time following breast-conserving therapy. OBJECTIVE: The EORTC "boost no boost" trial showed that young age and high-grade invasive carcinoma were the most important risk factors for IBTR. This study reanalyses pathological prognostic factors related to IBTR using long-term follow-up. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants included 5569 early-stage breast cancer patients, treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and whole-breast irradiation (WBI), who were randomized between no boost and a 16-Gy boost in the EORTC phase III "boost no boost" trial (1989-1996). A total of 1616 patients with a microscopically complete resection (according to local pathologists), included in the central pathology review, have been analyzed in this study. Median follow-up was 18.2 years. INTERVENTIONS: No further treatment or 16-Gy boost, after BCS and 50-Gy WBI. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Time to ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) as first event. RESULTS: The 20-year cumulative incidence of IBTR in 1616 patients (160 events observed) was 15% (95% CI, 12%-17%). Young age (P < .001) and presence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.36-3.38; P = .001) were associated with an increased risk of IBTR in multivariable analysis. The cumulative incidence of IBTR at 20 years was 34% (95% CI, 25%-41%), 14% (95% CI, 10%-18%), and 11% (95% CI, 8%-15%), in patients 40 years or younger, 41 to 50 years and 50 years or older, respectively (P < .001). This incidence was 18% (95% CI, 14%-22%) and 9% (95% CI, 6%-12%) for tumors with and without DCIS (P < .001). High-grade tumors relapsed more frequently early during follow-up but the relative effect of age and presence of DCIS seemed stable over time. The boost reduced the 20-year IBTR incidence from 31% (95% CI, 22%-39%) to 15% (95% CI, 8%-21%) (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.62; P < .001) in high-risk patients (≤50 years with DCIS present). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The association of high-grade invasive tumor with IBTR diminished during follow-up, while the effect of DCIS adjacent to invasive tumor seemed to remain stable. Therefore, patients with high-grade invasive tumors should be monitored closely, especially in the first 5 years, while additional DCIS is an indication for longer follow-up, emphasizing the importance of long-term trial follow-up to estimate absolute effects accurately. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02295033.
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