Hans Concin1, Wolfgang Brozek2, Karl-Peter Benedetto3, Hartmut Häfele4,5, Joachim Kopf4, Thomas Bärenzung6, Richard Schnetzer7, Christian Schenk8, Elmar Stimpfl1, Ursula Waheed-Hutter1, Hanno Ulmer9, Kilian Rapp10,11, Elisabeth Zwettler12, Gabriele Nagel1,11. 1. Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, Bregenz, Austria. 2. Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Osteology at the Hanusch Hospital of the Vienna Health Insurance Fund (WGKK) and Trauma Center Meidling of the Austrian Workers' Compensation Board (AUVA), 1st Medical Department, Hanusch Hospital, Vienna, Austria. wolfgang.brozek@osteologie.at. 3. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Feldkirch, Feldkirch, Austria. 4. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Bregenz, Bregenz, Austria. 5. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Hohenems, Hohenems, Austria. 6. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Bludenz, Bludenz, Austria. 7. Department of Trauma Surgery, Krankenhaus Dornbirn, Dornbirn, Austria. 8. Sanatorium Schruns, Schruns, Austria. 9. Department of Medical Statistics, Informatics and Health Economics, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria. 10. Department of Clinical Gerontology, Robert-Bosch-Hospital, Stuttgart, Germany. 11. Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany. 12. Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Osteology at the Hanusch Hospital of the Vienna Health Insurance Fund (WGKK) and Trauma Center Meidling of the Austrian Workers' Compensation Board (AUVA), 1st Medical Department, Hanusch Hospital, Vienna, Austria.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations. METHODS: Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050. RESULTS: Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men. CONCLUSIONS: We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.
OBJECTIVES: Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations. METHODS: Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050. RESULTS: Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men. CONCLUSIONS: We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.
Entities:
Keywords:
Austria; Hip fracture incidence; Osteoporosis; Prognosis; Vorarlberg
Authors: Klaas A Hartholt; Christian Oudshoorn; Stephanie M Zielinski; Paul T P W Burgers; Martien J M Panneman; Ed F van Beeck; Peter Patka; Tischa J M van der Cammen Journal: PLoS One Date: 2011-07-25 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Robert Wilk; Michał Skrzypek; Małgorzata Kowalska; Damian Kusz; Bogdan Koczy; Piotr Zagórski; Wojciech Pluskiewicz Journal: Aging Clin Exp Res Date: 2017-03-28 Impact factor: 3.636
Authors: Hans Peter Dimai; Berthold Reichardt; Emanuel Zitt; Hans Concin; Oliver Malle; Astrid Fahrleitner-Pammer; Axel Svedbom; Wolfgang Brozek Journal: Osteoporos Int Date: 2021-08-15 Impact factor: 4.507
Authors: D Canoy; N C Harvey; D Prieto-Alhambra; C Cooper; H E Meyer; B O Åsvold; M Nazarzadeh; K Rahimi Journal: Osteoporos Int Date: 2021-10-13 Impact factor: 5.071
Authors: Ilha G Fernandes; Maria C G S Macedo; Matheus A Souza; Gabriela Silveira-Nunes; Michelle C S A Barbosa; Andreia C C Queiroz; Edgar R Vieira; Alexandre C Barbosa Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2022-08-31 Impact factor: 4.614
Authors: Erlangga Dominic; Wolfgang Brozek; Raphael Simon Peter; Ella Fromm; Hanno Ulmer; Kilian Rapp; Hans Concin; Gabriele Nagel Journal: Bone Rep Date: 2020-01-13
Authors: Marta M Rey-Rodriguez; M A Vazquez-Gamez; Mercè Giner; Fernando Garrachón-Vallo; Luis Fernández-López; Miguel Angel Colmenero; María-José Montoya-García Journal: BMJ Open Date: 2020-09-24 Impact factor: 2.692