Gaya Spolverato1, Fabio Bagante1, Cecilia G Ethun2, George Poultsides3, Thuy Tran3, Kamran Idrees4, Chelsea A Isom4, Ryan C Fields5, Bradley Krasnick5, Emily Winslow6, Clifford Cho6, Robert C G Martin7, Charles R Scoggins7, Perry Shen8, Harveshp D Mogal8, Carl Schmidt9, Eliza Beal9, Ioannis Hatzaras10, Rivfka Shenoy10, Shishir K Maithel2, Timothy M Pawlik11,12. 1. Professor and Chair Department of Surgery, The Urban Meyer III and Shelley Meyer Chair in Cancer Research, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA. 2. Division of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. 3. Department of Surgery, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, CA, USA. 4. Division of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN, USA. 5. Department of Surgery, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, USA. 6. Department of Surgery, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI, USA. 7. Division of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA. 8. Department of Surgery, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC, USA. 9. Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA. 10. Department of Surgery, New York University, New York, NY, USA. 11. Professor and Chair Department of Surgery, The Urban Meyer III and Shelley Meyer Chair in Cancer Research, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, 395 W. 12th Ave., Suite 670, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA. tim.pawlik@osumc.edu. 12. Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA. tim.pawlik@osumc.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: While surgery offers the best curative-intent treatment, many patients with biliary tract malignancies have poor long-term outcomes. We sought to apply a non-mixture cure model to calculate the cure fraction and the time to cure after surgery of patients with peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC) or gallbladder cancer (GBC). METHODS: Using the Extrahepatic Biliary Malignancy Consortium, 576 patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for gallbladder carcinoma or peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1998 and 2014 at 10 major hepatobiliary institutions were identified and included in the analysis. A non-mixture cure model was adopted to compare mortality after surgery to the mortality expected for the general population matched by sex and age. RESULTS: The median and 5-year overall survival (OS) were 1.9 years (IQR, 0.9-4.9) and 23.9 % (95 % CI, 19.6-28.6). Among all patients with PHCC or GBC, the probability of being cured after surgery was 14.5 % (95 % CI, 8.7-23.2); the time to cure was 9.7 years and the median survival of uncured patients was 1.8 years. Determinants of cure probabilities included lymph node metastasis and CA 19.9 level (p ≤ 0.05). The cure fraction for patients with a CA 19.9 < 50 U/ml and no lymph nodes metastases were 39.0 % versus only 5.1 % among patients with a CA 19.9 ≥ 50 who also had lymph node metastasis. CONCLUSIONS: Examining an "all comer" cohort, <15 % of patients with PHCC or GBC could be considered cured after surgery. Factors such CA 19.9 level and lymph node metastasis independently predicted long-term outcome. Estimating the odds of statistical cure following surgery for biliary tract cancer can assist in decision-making as well as inform discussions around survivorship.
BACKGROUND: While surgery offers the best curative-intent treatment, many patients with biliary tract malignancies have poor long-term outcomes. We sought to apply a non-mixture cure model to calculate the cure fraction and the time to cure after surgery of patients with peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC) or gallbladder cancer (GBC). METHODS: Using the Extrahepatic Biliary Malignancy Consortium, 576 patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for gallbladder carcinoma or peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1998 and 2014 at 10 major hepatobiliary institutions were identified and included in the analysis. A non-mixture cure model was adopted to compare mortality after surgery to the mortality expected for the general population matched by sex and age. RESULTS: The median and 5-year overall survival (OS) were 1.9 years (IQR, 0.9-4.9) and 23.9 % (95 % CI, 19.6-28.6). Among all patients with PHCC or GBC, the probability of being cured after surgery was 14.5 % (95 % CI, 8.7-23.2); the time to cure was 9.7 years and the median survival of uncured patients was 1.8 years. Determinants of cure probabilities included lymph node metastasis and CA 19.9 level (p ≤ 0.05). The cure fraction for patients with a CA 19.9 < 50 U/ml and no lymph nodes metastases were 39.0 % versus only 5.1 % among patients with a CA 19.9 ≥ 50 who also had lymph node metastasis. CONCLUSIONS: Examining an "all comer" cohort, <15 % of patients with PHCC or GBC could be considered cured after surgery. Factors such CA 19.9 level and lymph node metastasis independently predicted long-term outcome. Estimating the odds of statistical cure following surgery for biliary tract cancer can assist in decision-making as well as inform discussions around survivorship.
Authors: Juan Valle; Harpreet Wasan; Daniel H Palmer; David Cunningham; Alan Anthoney; Anthony Maraveyas; Srinivasan Madhusudan; Tim Iveson; Sharon Hughes; Stephen P Pereira; Michael Roughton; John Bridgewater Journal: N Engl J Med Date: 2010-04-08 Impact factor: 91.245
Authors: Matthew J Weiss; David Cosgrove; Joseph M Herman; Neda Rastegar; Ihab Kamel; Timothy M Pawlik Journal: Langenbecks Arch Surg Date: 2014-06-25 Impact factor: 3.445
Authors: Elizabeth Palmer Kelly; Brian Myers; Julia McGee; Madison Hyer; Diamantis I Tsilimigras; Timothy M Pawlik Journal: J Cancer Educ Date: 2021-05-03 Impact factor: 2.037
Authors: Fabio Bagante; Gaya Spolverato; Matthew Weiss; Sorin Alexandrescu; Hugo P Marques; Luca Aldrighetti; Shishir K Maithel; Carlo Pulitano; Todd W Bauer; Feng Shen; George A Poultsides; Oliver Soubrane; Guillaume Martel; B Groot Koerkamp; Alfredo Guglielmi; Endo Itaru; Timothy M Pawlik Journal: J Gastrointest Surg Date: 2017-08-24 Impact factor: 3.452