| Literature DB >> 27547341 |
F Stephen Dobson1, Jeffrey E Lane2, Matthew Low3, Jan O Murie4.
Abstract
The influence of climate change on the fitness of wild populations is often studied in the context of the spring onset of the reproductive season. This focus is relevant for climate influences on reproductive success, but neglects other fitness-relevant periods (e.g., autumn preparation for overwintering). We examined variation in climate variables (temperature, rainfall, snowfall, and snowpack) across the full annual cycle of Columbian ground squirrels (Urocitellus columbianus) for 21 years. We investigated seasonal climate variables that were associated with fitness variables, climate variables that exhibited directional changes across the study period, and finally observed declines in fitness (-0.03 units/year; total decline = 37%) that were associated with directional changes in climate variables. Annual fitness of adult female ground squirrels was positively associated with spring temperature (r = 0.69) and early summer rainfall (r = 0.56) and negatively associated with spring snow conditions (r = -0.44 to -0.66). Across the 21 years, spring snowmelt has become significantly delayed (r = 0.48) and summer rainfall became significantly reduced (r = -0.53). Using a standardized partial regression model, we found that directional changes in the timing of spring snowmelt and early summer rainfall (i.e., progressively drier summers) had moderate influences on annual fitness, with the latter statistically significant (ρ = -0.314 and 0.437, respectively). The summer period corresponds to prehibernation fattening of young and adult ground squirrels. Had we focused on a single point in time (viz. the onset of the breeding season), we would have underestimated the influences of climate change on our population. Rather, we obtained a comprehensive understanding of the influences of climate change on individual fitness by investigating the full lifecycle.Entities:
Keywords: Climate; fitness; ground squirrels; seasons; sliding windows
Year: 2016 PMID: 27547341 PMCID: PMC4983578 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.2279
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecol Evol ISSN: 2045-7758 Impact factor: 2.912
Associations of climate variables and mean annual fitness of Columbian ground squirrels. For each of the years 1992–2012, the climate variable was averaged over the specified dates, except for date of snowmelt. “r with annual fitness” indicates the correlation of mean annual fitness on the mean daily value of the climate variable for the 21 years of the study
| Variable | Dates | Days |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | 30 April–11 May | 12 | 0.691 | −0.235 |
| Temperature | 22 Aug–1 September | 11 | −0.685 | 0.323 |
| Rainfall | 28 June–12 July | 15 | 0.559 | −0.525 |
| Rainfall | 28 July–13 August | 17 | −0.498 | 0.034 |
| Snowmelt | Various Julian Dates | −0.471 | 0.484 | |
| Snow Accumulation | 27 April–24 May | 28 | −0.517 | 0.201 |
| Snowfall before | 14 Feb–8 March | 23 | −0.663 | 0.177 |
| Snowfall before | 30 April–19 May | 20 | −0.442 | 0.179 |
| Snowfall after | 19 Jan–17 February | 30 | −0.583 | 0.248 |
| Snowfall after | 26 April–20 May | 25 | −0.514 | 0.212 |
Snowfall before annual fitness was measured, reflects influence of snowfall on the timing of reproduction.
Snowfall after reproduction and in the year for which annual fitness was measured, reflects influence of snowfall on survival of mother and offspring.
*P ≤ 0.05, **P ≤ 0.01, ***P ≤ 0.001.
Figure 1Regression of annual fitness on Julian date of snowmelt. Points represent annual averages between 1992 and 2012.
Figure 2Regression of annual fitness on (A) early summer temperature and (B) early summer rainfall after the young of the year were weaned (late June and July, Table 1), when all ground squirrels were fattening for subsequent emergence into hibernation. Points represent daily period averages for 21 different years.
Figure 3Standardized partial regression analysis of the influence of climate variables that exhibited significant influences on fitness and significant changes over the course of the 21 years of study of a colony of Columbian ground squirrels. A nonsignificant negative correlation between date of snowmelt in late April to late May and mean daily rainfall in late June to mid July is shown (r = −0.389, P = 0.11, n = 21). Relatively, late spring snowmelt and dry early summers were associated with lower annual fitness. Variance inflation due to correlations among independent variables was relatively low (see text). The standardized partial regression coefficient for early summer rainfall was significant (*, z = 2.32, P = 0.02) and for spring snowmelt was not (z = 1.66, P = 0.10).