Variable Selection in Function-on-Scalar Regression.

For regression models with functional responses and scalar predictors, it is common for the number of predictors to be large. Despite this, few methods for variable selection exist for function-on-scalar models, and none account for the inherent correlation of residual curves in such models. By expanding the coefficient functions using a B-spline basis, we pose the function-on-scalar model as a multivariate regression problem. Spline coefficients are grouped within coefficient function, and group-minimax concave penalty (MCP) is used for variable selection. We adapt techniques from generalized least squares to account for residual covariance by "pre-whitening" using an estimate of the covariance matrix, and establish theoretical properties for the resulting estimator. We further develop an iterative algorithm that alternately updates the spline coefficients and covariance; simulation results indicate that this iterative algorithm often performs as well as pre-whitening using the true covariance, and substantially outperforms methods that neglect the covariance structure. We apply our method to two-dimensional planar reaching motions in a study of the effects of stroke severity on motor control, and find that our method provides lower prediction errors than competing methods.