Splenomegaly, elevated alkaline phosphatase and mutations in the SRSF2/ASXL1/RUNX1 gene panel are strong adverse prognostic markers in patients with systemic mastocytosis.

We evaluated the impact of clinical and molecular characteristics on overall survival (OS) in 108 patients with indolent (n=41) and advanced systemic mastocytosis (SM) (advSM, n=67). Organomegaly was measured by magnetic resonance imaging-based volumetry of the liver and spleen. In multivariate analysis of all patients, an increased spleen volume ⩾450 ml (hazard ratio (HR), 5.2; 95% confidence interval (CI), (2.1-13.0); P=0.003) and an elevated alkaline phosphatase (AP; HR 5.0 (1.1-22.2); P=0.02) were associated with adverse OS. The 3-year OS was 100, 77, and 39%, respectively (P<0.0001), for patients with 0 (low risk, n=37), 1 (intermediate risk, n=32) or 2 (high risk, n=39) parameters. For advSM patients with fully available clinical and molecular data (n=60), univariate analysis identified splenomegaly ⩾1200 ml, elevated AP and mutations in the SRSF2/ASXL1/RUNX1 (S/A/R) gene panel as significant prognostic markers. In multivariate analysis, mutations in S/A/R (HR 3.2 (1.1-9.6); P=0.01) and elevated AP (HR 2.6 (1.0-7.1); P=0.03) remained predictive adverse prognostic markers for OS. The 3-year OS was 76 and 38%, respectively (P=0.0003), for patients with 0-1 (intermediate risk, n=28) or 2 (high risk, n=32) parameters. We conclude that splenomegaly, elevated AP and mutations in the S/A/R gene panel are independent of the World Health Organization classification and provide the most relevant prognostic information in SM patients.