Mònica Pons1, Macarena Simón-Talero1, Laura Millán1, Meritxell Ventura-Cots1, Begoña Santos1, Salvador Augustin2, Joan Genescà3. 1. Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. 2. Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: salva.augustin@gmail.com. 3. Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Transient elastography has been proposed as a tool to predict the risk of decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease. We aimed to identify risk groups of disease progression, using a combination of baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and its change over time (delta-LSM) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). METHODS: Ninety-four patients with baseline LSM ≥10kPa, Child-Pugh score 5 and without previous decompensation were included. A second LSM was performed during follow-up and data on liver function and liver-related events were collected. The primary endpoint was a composite that included death, liver decompensation and impairment in at least 1 point in Child-Pugh score. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 43.6 months, 15% of patients presented the primary endpoint. Multivariate analysis identified baseline LSM (OR 1.12, P=0.002) and delta-LSM (OR 1.02, P=0.048) as independent predictors of the primary endpoint. A high risk group represented by patients with baseline LSM ≥21kPa and delta-LSM ≥10% (risk of progression 47.1%, 95% CI: 23-71%) was identified, while patients with LSM <21kPa and delta-LSM <10% presented zero risk of progression (P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Simple classification rules using baseline LSM and delta-LSM identify cACLD patients at low or high risk of disease progression.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Transient elastography has been proposed as a tool to predict the risk of decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease. We aimed to identify risk groups of disease progression, using a combination of baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and its change over time (delta-LSM) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). METHODS: Ninety-four patients with baseline LSM ≥10kPa, Child-Pugh score 5 and without previous decompensation were included. A second LSM was performed during follow-up and data on liver function and liver-related events were collected. The primary endpoint was a composite that included death, liver decompensation and impairment in at least 1 point in Child-Pugh score. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 43.6 months, 15% of patients presented the primary endpoint. Multivariate analysis identified baseline LSM (OR 1.12, P=0.002) and delta-LSM (OR 1.02, P=0.048) as independent predictors of the primary endpoint. A high risk group represented by patients with baseline LSM ≥21kPa and delta-LSM ≥10% (risk of progression 47.1%, 95% CI: 23-71%) was identified, while patients with LSM <21kPa and delta-LSM <10% presented zero risk of progression (P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Simple classification rules using baseline LSM and delta-LSM identify cACLD patients at low or high risk of disease progression.