Do learners predict a shift from recency to primacy with delay?

The shift from recency to primacy with delay reflects a fundamental observation in the study of memory. As time passes, the accessibility of earlier-learned representations tends to increase relative to the accessibility of later-learned representations. In three experiments involving participants' memory for text materials, we examined whether participants understood that there might be such a shift with retention interval. In marked contrast to their actual performance, participants predicted recency effects at both shorter and longer retention intervals. Our findings add to the evidence that the storage and retrieval dynamics of the human memory system, though adaptive overall from a statistics-of-use standpoint, are both complex and poorly understood by users of the system.