Günther Fink1, Evan Peet2, Goodarz Danaei3, Kathryn Andrews3, Dana Charles McCoy4, Christopher R Sudfeld3, Mary C Smith Fawzi5, Majid Ezzati6, Wafaie W Fawzi3. 1. Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA; gfink@hsph.harvard.edu. 2. Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA; 3. Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA; 4. Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, MA; 5. Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA; and. 6. MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The growth of >300 million children <5 y old was mildly, moderately, or severely stunted worldwide in 2010. However, national estimates of the human capital and financial losses due to growth faltering in early childhood are not available. OBJECTIVE: We quantified the economic cost of growth faltering in developing countries. DESIGN: We combined the most recent country-level estimates of linear growth delays from the Nutrition Impact Model Study with estimates of returns to education in developing countries to estimate the impact of early-life growth faltering on educational attainment and future incomes. Primary outcomes were total years of educational attainment lost as well as the net present value of future wage earnings lost per child and birth cohort due to growth faltering in 137 developing countries. Bootstrapped standard errors were computed to account for uncertainty in modeling inputs. RESULTS: Our estimates suggest that early-life growth faltering in developing countries caused a total loss of 69.4 million y of educational attainment (95% CI: 41.7 million, 92.6 million y) per birth cohort. Educational attainment losses were largest in South Asia (27.6 million y; 95% CI: 20.0 million, 35.8 million y) as well as in Eastern (10.3 million y; 95% CI: 7.2 million, 12.9 million y) and Western sub-Saharan Africa (8.8 million y; 95% CI: 6.4 million, 11.5 million y). Globally, growth faltering in developing countries caused a total economic cost of $176.8 billion (95% CI: $100.9 billion, $262.6 billion)/birth cohort at nominal exchange rates, and $616.5 billion (95% CI: $365.3 billion, $898.9 billion) at purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run benefits of $3 for every $1 invested.
BACKGROUND: The growth of >300 million children <5 y old was mildly, moderately, or severely stunted worldwide in 2010. However, national estimates of the human capital and financial losses due to growth faltering in early childhood are not available. OBJECTIVE: We quantified the economic cost of growth faltering in developing countries. DESIGN: We combined the most recent country-level estimates of linear growth delays from the Nutrition Impact Model Study with estimates of returns to education in developing countries to estimate the impact of early-life growth faltering on educational attainment and future incomes. Primary outcomes were total years of educational attainment lost as well as the net present value of future wage earnings lost per child and birth cohort due to growth faltering in 137 developing countries. Bootstrapped standard errors were computed to account for uncertainty in modeling inputs. RESULTS: Our estimates suggest that early-life growth faltering in developing countries caused a total loss of 69.4 million y of educational attainment (95% CI: 41.7 million, 92.6 million y) per birth cohort. Educational attainment losses were largest in South Asia (27.6 million y; 95% CI: 20.0 million, 35.8 million y) as well as in Eastern (10.3 million y; 95% CI: 7.2 million, 12.9 million y) and Western sub-Saharan Africa (8.8 million y; 95% CI: 6.4 million, 11.5 million y). Globally, growth faltering in developing countries caused a total economic cost of $176.8 billion (95% CI: $100.9 billion, $262.6 billion)/birth cohort at nominal exchange rates, and $616.5 billion (95% CI: $365.3 billion, $898.9 billion) at purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run benefits of $3 for every $1 invested.
Authors: Deborah P Waber; Cyralene P Bryce; Jonathan M Girard; Laura K Fischer; Garrett M Fitzmaurice; Janina R Galler Journal: Nutr Neurosci Date: 2016-11-25 Impact factor: 4.994
Authors: Günther Fink; Cesar G Victora; Kenneth Harttgen; Sebastian Vollmer; Luís Paulo Vidaletti; Aluisio J D Barros Journal: Am J Public Health Date: 2017-02-16 Impact factor: 9.308
Authors: Dana Charles McCoy; Christopher R Sudfeld; David C Bellinger; Alfa Muhihi; Geofrey Ashery; Taylor E Weary; Wafaie Fawzi; Günther Fink Journal: Popul Health Metr Date: 2017-02-09
Authors: Linda M Richter; Bernadette Daelmans; Joan Lombardi; Jody Heymann; Florencia Lopez Boo; Jere R Behrman; Chunling Lu; Jane E Lucas; Rafael Perez-Escamilla; Tarun Dua; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Karin Stenberg; Paul Gertler; Gary L Darmstadt Journal: Lancet Date: 2016-10-04 Impact factor: 79.321