Risk Prediction in CKD: The Rational Alignment of Health Care Resources in CKD 4/5 Care.

CKD is a well-recognized global epidemic with consequences on patient morbidity, mortality, and health care resources. In the United States and Canada, a financial premium is often paid to programs and providers for caring for patients with Stage 4 to 5 CKD (not on dialysis) and is justified by the intensive care required by these patients, particularly in preparation for dialysis. About half of all patients with CKD Stages 3 and 4 never progress to kidney failure, and more than a quarter of them have stable kidney function for years. Among patients with Stage 3 CKD, even fewer progresses to kidney failure but small subpopulations with certain characteristics (eg, younger age, higher levels of proteinuria) have a more predictable trajectory. Clearly, a more robust method of screening patients for nephrology referral and subsequent enrollment into multidisciplinary clinics is needed to provide better efficiency within the health care system. The Kidney Failure Risk Equation is a generalizable CKD risk prediction model that has been externally validated and allows for the efficient risk-based triaging of nephrology referrals with a significant benefit to decreasing wait times. It is also efficiently used in a multidisciplinary kidney disease clinic with aiding timing in modality planning and frequency of follow-ups. The overall potential benefit of this system should allow for appropriate allocation of human resources to those at highest risk to yield optimal care in the most cost-effective manner to the health care system.