Hiroshi Nishiura1, Kenji Mizumoto2, Kat S Rock3, Yohei Yasuda4, Ryo Kinoshita5, Yuichiro Miyamatsu5. 1. Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan. Electronic address: nishiurah@gmail.com. 2. Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 3-8-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 1538902, Japan; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan. 3. Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan. 4. Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan. 5. Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan; CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan; Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeastern Brazil in 2015. METHODS: Temporal distributions of microcephaly, reported dengue-like illness and dengue seropositive in Brazil were extracted from secondary data sources. Using an integral equation model and a backcalculation technique, we estimated the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection. RESULTS: If the fraction of Zika virus infections among a total of seronegative dengue-like illness cases is 30%, the risk of microcephaly following infection during the first trimester was estimated at 46.7% (95% CI: 9.1, 84.2), comparable to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. However, the risk of microcephaly was shown to vary widely from 14.0% to 100%. The mean gestational age at delivery with microcephaly was estimated at 37.5 weeks (95% CI: 36.9, 39.3). CONCLUSIONS: The time interval between peaks of reported dengue-like illness and microcephaly was consistent with cause-outcome relationship. Our modeling framework predicts that the incidence of microcephaly is expected to steadily decline in early 2016, Brazil.
OBJECTIVES: There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeastern Brazil in 2015. METHODS: Temporal distributions of microcephaly, reported dengue-like illness and dengue seropositive in Brazil were extracted from secondary data sources. Using an integral equation model and a backcalculation technique, we estimated the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection. RESULTS: If the fraction of Zika virus infections among a total of seronegative dengue-like illness cases is 30%, the risk of microcephaly following infection during the first trimester was estimated at 46.7% (95% CI: 9.1, 84.2), comparable to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. However, the risk of microcephaly was shown to vary widely from 14.0% to 100%. The mean gestational age at delivery with microcephaly was estimated at 37.5 weeks (95% CI: 36.9, 39.3). CONCLUSIONS: The time interval between peaks of reported dengue-like illness and microcephaly was consistent with cause-outcome relationship. Our modeling framework predicts that the incidence of microcephaly is expected to steadily decline in early 2016, Brazil.
Authors: Pinar Mesci; Angela Macia; Spencer M Moore; Sergey A Shiryaev; Antonella Pinto; Chun-Teng Huang; Leon Tejwani; Isabella R Fernandes; Nicole A Suarez; Matthew J Kolar; Sandro Montefusco; Scott C Rosenberg; Roberto H Herai; Fernanda R Cugola; Fabiele B Russo; Nicholas Sheets; Alan Saghatelian; Sujan Shresta; Jeremiah D Momper; Jair L Siqueira-Neto; Kevin D Corbett; Patricia C B Beltrão-Braga; Alexey V Terskikh; Alysson R Muotri Journal: Sci Rep Date: 2018-01-19 Impact factor: 4.379
Authors: Meghan S Vermillion; Jun Lei; Yahya Shabi; Victoria K Baxter; Nathan P Crilly; Michael McLane; Diane E Griffin; Andrew Pekosz; Sabra L Klein; Irina Burd Journal: Nat Commun Date: 2017-02-21 Impact factor: 14.919