Prognostic Classification Factors Associated With Development of Multiple Autoantibodies, Dysglycemia, and Type 1 Diabetes-A Recursive Partitioning Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To define prognostic classification factors associated with the progression from single to multiple autoantibodies, multiple autoantibodies to dysglycemia, and dysglycemia to type 1 diabetes onset in relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Three distinct cohorts of subjects from the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study were investigated separately. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was used to determine the risk classes. Clinical characteristics, including genotype, antibody titers, and metabolic markers were analyzed.
RESULTS: Age and GAD65 autoantibody (GAD65Ab) titers defined three risk classes for progression from single to multiple autoantibodies. The 5-year risk was 11% for those subjects >16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, 29% for those ≤16 years of age with low GAD65Ab titers, and 45% for those subjects with high GAD65Ab titers regardless of age. Progression to dysglycemia was associated with islet antigen 2 Ab titers, and 2-h glucose and fasting C-peptide levels. The 5-year risk is 28%, 39%, and 51% for respective risk classes defined by the three predictors. Progression to type 1 diabetes was associated with the number of positive autoantibodies, peak C-peptide level, HbA1c level, and age. Four risk classes defined by RPA had a 5-year risk of 9%, 33%, 62%, and 80%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The use of RPA offered a new classification approach that could predict the timing of transitions from one preclinical stage to the next in the development of type 1 diabetes. Using these RPA classes, new prevention techniques can be tailored based on the individual prognostic risk characteristics at different preclinical stages.