Could refuge theory and rivers acting as barriers explain the genetic variability distribution in the Atlantic Forest?

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most species-rich ecoregions in the world. The historical origins of this richness and the evolutionary processes that produced diversification and promoted speciation in this ecosystem remain poorly understood. In this context, focusing on Passiflora contracta, an endemic species from the Atlantic Forest distributed exclusively at sea level along forest edges, this study aimed to characterize the patterns of genetic variability and explore two hypotheses that attempt to explain the possible causes of the genetic diversity in this region: the refuge and riverine barrier theories. We employed Bayesian methods combined with niche modeling to identify genetically homogeneous groups, to determine the diversification age, and identify long-term climate stability areas to species survival. The analyses were performed using molecular markers from nuclear and plastid genomes, with samples collected throughout the entire geographic distribution of the species, and comparisons with congeners species. The results indicated that populations were genetically structured and provided evidence of demographic stability. The molecular markers indicated the existence of a clear structure and the presence of five homogeneous groups. Interestingly, the separation of the groups coincides with the geographical locations of local rivers, corroborating the hypothesis of rivers acting as barriers to gene flow in this species. The highest levels of genetic diversity and the areas identified as having long-term climate stability were found in the same region reported for other species as a possible refuge area during the climatic changes of the Quaternary.