Past caries recordings made in Public Dental Clinics as predictors of caries prevalence in early adolescence.

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the power of past caries experience in primary and permanent dentition in predicting caries prevalence at the age of 13 yr. Clinical and radiographical examination was performed in 512 13-yr-olds by a trained research team. The 6-12-yr dmfs and DMFS values were obtained from the Public Dental Care records. For evaluating the accuracy of predictions, the children were cross-classified according to each past caries score and the 13-yr score. The cutting points were selected to that the children in the upper quartile of caries experience formed the predicted and true high caries groups, leaving about 75% in the low caries groups. Pearson correlations were also calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of caries in primary teeth (6 yr) were 57% and 85%, respectively. For permanent dentition, sensitivity was the lowest (28%) at the age of 6, reached 68% at the age of 9 and remained at that level until age 12. Specificity decreased from 92% (6 yr) to 85% (9 yr) and then steadily increased to 93% (12 yr). Correlation increased with age from 0.37 to 0.82. When screening for high caries increment in young children, caries in primary dentition seems a better screening criterion than caries in permanent first molars. When the aim is to identify those subjects with high caries increment later on, screening at age 9 seems as accurate as that done later.