| Literature DB >> 26860903 |
Jochen Schneider1, Alexander Hapfelmeier2, Sieglinde Thöres3, Andreas Obermeier4, Christoph Schulz5, Dominik Pförringer6, Simon Nennstiel7, Christoph Spinner8, Roland M Schmid9, Hana Algül10, Wolfgang Huber11, Andreas Weber12.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Acute cholangitis is a life-threatening bacterial infection of the biliary tract. Main focus of this study was to create a useful risk prediction model that helps physicians to assign patients with acute cholangitis into different management groups.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 26860903 PMCID: PMC4746925 DOI: 10.1186/s12876-016-0428-1
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Gastroenterol ISSN: 1471-230X Impact factor: 3.067
Patients’ baseline characteristics
| Baseline characteristics | |
|---|---|
| number of patients | 810 |
| - median age in years (range) | 68(27-97) |
| - male | 456 |
| number of cholangitis episodes | 981 |
| underlying cause of cholangitis episodes | |
| malignant genesis: | 509 (51,9 %) |
| - cholangiocarcinoma | 206 (21,0 %) |
| - pancreas cancer | 162 (16,5 %) |
| - hepatocellular carcinoma | 7 (0,7 %) |
| - liver metastases with intrahepatic biliary obstruction: | |
| o colorectal cancer | 50 (5,1 %) |
| o gastric cancer | 30 (3,1 %) |
| o gallbladder cancer | 28 (2,9 %) |
| o other malignant tumors (breast cancer, oesophagus cancer…) | 26 (2,7 %) |
| benign genesis: | 391 (39,9 %) |
| - stricture of the biliodigestive anastomosis | 32 (3,3 %) |
| - chronic pancreatitis with extrahepatic biliary obstruction | 17 (1,7 %) |
| - bile duct stricture after cholecystectomy | 36 (3,7 %) |
| - liver cyst with intrahepatic biliary stricture | 1 (0,1 %) |
| - adenoma of the papilla vateri | 6 (0,6 %) |
| - choledocholithiasis | 271 (27,6 %) |
| - primary sclerosing cholangitis | 21 (2,1 %) |
| - trauma associated strictures | 6 (0,6 %) |
| - secondary sclerosing cholangitis | 1 (0,1 %) |
| idiopathic biliary stricture: | 81 (8,3 %) |
Univariate analysis of binary and dichotomized risk predictors
| Univariate analysis of binary and dichotomized risk predictors | Incidence of mortality | [Odds ratio (95 %-CI)] |
|---|---|---|
| age ≥ 65 | 4.0 %(23/579) | [1.1(0.5-2.3)] P = 0.736 |
| age < 65 | 3.5 %(14/402) | |
| age ≥ 75 | 4.3 %(13/303) | [1.2(0.6-2.5)] P = 0.588 |
| age < 75 | 3.5 %(24/678) | |
| male | 2.9 %(16/549) | [1.7(0.8-3.4)] P = 0.129 |
| female | 4.9 %(21/432) | |
| fever (temp ≥39 °C) | 3.8 %(2/52) | [1.0(0.2-4.4)] P = 1.000 |
| fever (temp <39 °C) | 3.8 %(34/905) | |
| previous episode of cholangitis | 3.8 %(17/446) | [1.0(0.5-1.9)] P = 1.000 |
| no previous cholangitis episode | 3.7 %(20/535) | |
| indwelling stent (stent therapy) | 3.4 %(16/466) | [0.8(0.4-1.7)] P = 0.619 |
| no indwelling stent (stent therapy) | 4.1 %(21/515) | |
| PTC as interventional approach | 6.1 %(19/310) | [2.4(1.2-4.6)] P = 0.011 |
| no PTC as interventional approach | 2.7 %(18/671) | |
| mental confusiona | 25.9 %(29/112) | [37.6(16.6-85.0)] P < 0.001 |
| no mental confusion | 0.9 %(8/869) | |
| previous intervention (ERC/PTC) | 5.0 %(19/383) | [0.6(0.3-1.2)] P = 0.125 |
| no previous intervention | 3.0 %(18/598) | |
| hypotension requiring catecholaminea | 18.3 %(11/60) | [7.7(3.6-16.6)] P < 0.001 |
| no hypotension requiring catecholamine | 2.8 %(26/921) | |
| insufficient drainage | 8.3 %(20/240) | [4.5(2.2-9.1)] P < 0.001 |
| adequate drainage | 2.0 %(14/706) | |
| organ failure including all parameters witha | 15.7 %(34/217) | [47.1(14.3-155.2)] P < 0.001 |
| no organ failure | 0.4 %(3/764) | |
| leucocytes > 15 G/l | 6.9 %(12/174) | [2.3(1.1-4.8)] P = 0.026 |
| leucocytes ≤ 15 G/L | 3.1 %(25/807) | |
| bilirubin ≥5 mg/l | 6.4 %(29/452) | [4.5(2.0-9.9)] P < 0.001 |
| bilirubin <5 mg/l | 1.5 %(8/529) | |
| aspartat-Aminotransferase (AST) > 70 | 5.3 %(19/357) | [2.1(1.0-4.3)] P = 0.046 |
| aspartat-Aminotransferase (AST) ≤ 70 | 2.6 %(14/532) | |
| alanin-Aminotransferase (ALT) > 70 | 3.0 %(14/462) | [0.7(0.3-1.3)] P = 0.242 |
| alanin-Aminotransferase (ALT) ≤ 70 | 4.6 %(23/502) | |
| quick’s value < 50 % | 16,7 %(9/54) | [6.4(2.8-14.5)] P < 0.001 |
| quick’s value ≥ 50 % | 3.0 %(28/927) | |
| serum creatinine >2 mg/dla | 13.2 %(5/38) | [4.3(1.5-11.8)] P = 0.012 |
| serum creatinine ≤ 2 mg/dl | 3.4 %(32/943) | |
| platelet count < 100.000/mm3a | 9.8 %(5/51) | [3.0(1.1-8.2)] P = 0.038 |
| platelet count ≥ 100.000/mm3 | 3.4 %(32/930) | |
| bacteremia | 7.7 %(14/182) | [2.8(1.4-5.6)] P = 0.004 |
| no bacteremia | 2.9 %(23/799) | |
| malignant genesis | 1.9 %(9/472) | [3.0(1.3-6.5)] P = 0.004 |
| non malignant genesis | 5.5 %(28/509) |
aparameters included to organic failure
Fig. 1Range of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves obtained by five-fold cross-validation. The mean AUC is 91.5 %. The rhomb indicates the mean performances of the optimal cutpoint
Figure 2Recommended treatment algorithm based on the calculated mortality risk