Prognosis of abdominal aortic aneurysms. A population-based study.

Information is incomplete about the rate of expansion of abdominal aortic aneurysms and the risk of rupture in relation to their size. To address these questions, we conducted a population-based study. Of the 370 residents of Rochester, Minn., with an aneurysm initially diagnosed from 1951 through 1984, 181 had the aneurysm documented by ultrasound examination. Among the 103 patients who underwent more than one ultrasound study, the diameter of the aneurysm increased by a median of 0.21 cm per year. Only 24 percent had a rate of expansion of 0.4 cm or more per year. Among the 176 patients who had an unruptured aneurysm at the time of the initial ultrasound study, the cumulative incidence of rupture was 6 percent after 5 years and 8 percent after 10 years. However, the risk of rupture over five years was 0 percent for the 130 patients with an aneurysm less than 5 cm in diameter and 25 percent for the 46 patients with an aneurysm 5 cm or more in diameter. All 16 patients who had ruptures had aneurysms that were 5 cm or more in diameter at the time of the rupture. These population-based data challenge the clinical perception that aneurysms typically expand at a rate of 0.4 to 0.5 cm per year. Our data also suggest that for aneurysms less than 5 cm in diameter the risk of rupture is considerably lower than has been reported previously. However, the risk of rupture is substantial for aneurysms 5 cm or more in diameter.