Bridget Teevan Burke1, Anna Köttgen2, Andrew Law3, Morgan Grams4, Alan N Baer5, Josef Coresh1, Mara A McAdams-DeMarco6. 1. Department of Epidemiology, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland. 2. Department of Epidemiology, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland. Division of Nephrology, University Medical Center Freiburg, Germany. 3. Department of Surgery. 4. Division of Nephrology, and. 5. Division of Rheumatology, JHU School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland. 6. Department of Epidemiology, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland. Department of Surgery, mara@jhu.edu.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age predict the onset of gout in older age. METHODS: We studied the incidence of gout in older adults using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective U.S. population-based cohort of middle-aged adults enrolled between 1987 and 1989 with ongoing follow-up. A genetic urate score was formed from common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms for eight genes. The adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of incident gout by traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence from middle age to age 65 was 8.6% in men and 2.5% in women; by age 75 the cumulative incidence was 11.8% and 5.0%. In middle age, increased adiposity, beer intake, protein intake, smoking status, hypertension, diuretic use, and kidney function (but not sex) were associated with an increased gout risk in older age. In addition, a 100 µmol/L increase in genetic urate score was associated with a 3.29-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.63-6.63) increased gout risk in older age. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age may be useful for identifying those at risk of gout in older age.
BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age predict the onset of gout in older age. METHODS: We studied the incidence of gout in older adults using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective U.S. population-based cohort of middle-aged adults enrolled between 1987 and 1989 with ongoing follow-up. A genetic urate score was formed from common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms for eight genes. The adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of incident gout by traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence from middle age to age 65 was 8.6% in men and 2.5% in women; by age 75 the cumulative incidence was 11.8% and 5.0%. In middle age, increased adiposity, beer intake, protein intake, smoking status, hypertension, diuretic use, and kidney function (but not sex) were associated with an increased gout risk in older age. In addition, a 100 µmol/L increase in genetic urate score was associated with a 3.29-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.63-6.63) increased gout risk in older age. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age may be useful for identifying those at risk of gout in older age.
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