Alexander Kaltenborn1,2,3, Svenja Matzke2,4, Moritz Kleine1, Till Krech5, Wolf Ramackers1, Florian W R Vondran1, Jürgen Klempnauer1, Hüseyin Bektas1, Harald Schrem1,2. 1. Department of General, Visceral and Transplant Surgery, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany. 2. Core Facility Quality Management and Health Technology Assessment in Transplantation, Integrated Research and Treatment Center-Transplantation (IFB-Tx), Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany. 3. Department of Trauma and Orthopaedic Surgery, Federal Armed Forces Hospital Westerstede, Westerstede, Germany. 4. Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Armed Forces Hospital Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany. 5. Institute of Pathology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study strives to define prognostic models for outcome after surgery for malignant pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. METHODS: Forty-one patients were included. Prognostic models for mortality and disease recurrence were developed with multivariate binary logistic regression. RESULTS: The proposed prognostic model for tumor recurrence risk after surgery in percentage (AUROC = 0.774, 95%CI = 0.611-0.937) is: Risk in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -4.360 + (0.015 × tumor diameter in cm) + (0.010 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (1.077 × distant metastases, if yes = 1; if no = 0) + (-0.026 × Ki-67-positive cells in %) + (-1.086 × upper abdominal pain, if yes = 1; if no = 0). The proposed prognostic model for observed 3-year survival probability after surgery in % (AUROC = 0.932, 95%CI = 0.857-0.999) is: Survival probability in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -12.492 + (0.054 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (0.112 × minimal distance of the resection margin from the tumor in mm) + (-1.574 × number of positive lymph nodes) + (2.292 × histological tumor infiltration, if yes = 1; if no = 0) CONCLUSIONS: The platelet count was identified as a relevant risk factor. Proposed prognostic models with good model-fit display properties that indicate potential clinical usefulness.
BACKGROUND: This study strives to define prognostic models for outcome after surgery for malignant pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. METHODS: Forty-one patients were included. Prognostic models for mortality and disease recurrence were developed with multivariate binary logistic regression. RESULTS: The proposed prognostic model for tumor recurrence risk after surgery in percentage (AUROC = 0.774, 95%CI = 0.611-0.937) is: Risk in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -4.360 + (0.015 × tumor diameter in cm) + (0.010 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (1.077 × distant metastases, if yes = 1; if no = 0) + (-0.026 × Ki-67-positive cells in %) + (-1.086 × upper abdominal pain, if yes = 1; if no = 0). The proposed prognostic model for observed 3-year survival probability after surgery in % (AUROC = 0.932, 95%CI = 0.857-0.999) is: Survival probability in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -12.492 + (0.054 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (0.112 × minimal distance of the resection margin from the tumor in mm) + (-1.574 × number of positive lymph nodes) + (2.292 × histological tumor infiltration, if yes = 1; if no = 0) CONCLUSIONS: The platelet count was identified as a relevant risk factor. Proposed prognostic models with good model-fit display properties that indicate potential clinical usefulness.
Authors: Mark D Jäger; Michaela Serttas; Jan Beneke; Jörg A Müller; Harald Schrem; Alexander Kaltenborn; Wolf Ramackers; Bastian P Ringe; Jill Gwiasda; Wolfgang Tränkenschuh; Jürgen Klempnauer; Georg F W Scheumann Journal: PLoS One Date: 2017-10-17 Impact factor: 3.240
Authors: Pedro Marques; Friso de Vries; Olaf M Dekkers; Márta Korbonits; Nienke R Biermasz; Alberto M Pereira Journal: J Clin Endocrinol Metab Date: 2021-09-27 Impact factor: 5.958