Jacek A Kopec1, Eric C Sayre2, Philippe Fines3, William M Flanagan3, Claude Nadeau3, Anya Okhmatovskaia4, Michael C Wolfson5. 1. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, and Arthritis Research Canada, Richmond, British Columbia, Canada. 2. Arthritis Research Canada, Richmond, British Columbia, Canada. 3. Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. 4. McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 5. University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease and a major cause of disability. Incidence and prevalence of OA are expected to increase due to population aging and increased levels of obesity. The purpose of this study was to project the effect of hypothetical interventions that change the distribution of body mass index (BMI) on OA burden in Canada. METHODS: We used a microsimulation computer model of OA based on the Population Health Model platform. The model used demographic predictions for Canada and population data from an administrative database in British Columbia and national Canadian surveys. RESULTS: Under the base-case scenario, between 2010 and 2030, OA prevalence is expected to increase from 11.5% to 15.6% in men and 16.3% to 21.1% in women. In scenarios assuming, on average, a 0.3-, 0.5-, or 1-unit drop in BMI per year, OA prevalence in 2030 would reach 14.9%, 14.6%, and 14.2% in men and 20.3%, 19.7%, and 18.5%, in women, respectively. Under these scenarios, the proportion of new cases prevented would be 9.5%, 13.2%, and 16.7%, respectively, in men, and 9.1%, 15.2%, and 25.0% in women. Targeting only those people ages ≥50 years for weight reduction would achieve approximately 70% of the impact of a full population strategy. Targeting only the obese (BMI ≥30) would likely result in a larger benefit for men than women. CONCLUSION: Due to the aging of the population, OA will remain a major and growing health issue in Canada over the next 2 decades, regardless of the course of the obesity epidemic.
OBJECTIVE:Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease and a major cause of disability. Incidence and prevalence of OA are expected to increase due to population aging and increased levels of obesity. The purpose of this study was to project the effect of hypothetical interventions that change the distribution of body mass index (BMI) on OA burden in Canada. METHODS: We used a microsimulation computer model of OA based on the Population Health Model platform. The model used demographic predictions for Canada and population data from an administrative database in British Columbia and national Canadian surveys. RESULTS: Under the base-case scenario, between 2010 and 2030, OA prevalence is expected to increase from 11.5% to 15.6% in men and 16.3% to 21.1% in women. In scenarios assuming, on average, a 0.3-, 0.5-, or 1-unit drop in BMI per year, OA prevalence in 2030 would reach 14.9%, 14.6%, and 14.2% in men and 20.3%, 19.7%, and 18.5%, in women, respectively. Under these scenarios, the proportion of new cases prevented would be 9.5%, 13.2%, and 16.7%, respectively, in men, and 9.1%, 15.2%, and 25.0% in women. Targeting only those people ages ≥50 years for weight reduction would achieve approximately 70% of the impact of a full population strategy. Targeting only the obese (BMI ≥30) would likely result in a larger benefit for men than women. CONCLUSION: Due to the aging of the population, OA will remain a major and growing health issue in Canada over the next 2 decades, regardless of the course of the obesity epidemic.
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Authors: Jacek A Kopec; Eric C Sayre; Anya Okhmatovskaia; Jolanda Cibere; Linda C Li; Nick Bansback; Hubert Wong; Shahzad Ghanbarian; John M Esdaile Journal: PLoS One Date: 2021-12-08 Impact factor: 3.240