| Literature DB >> 26422694 |
Lawrence C Hamilton1, Joel Hartter2, Mary Lemcke-Stampone3, David W Moore4, Thomas G Safford1.
Abstract
A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2015 PMID: 26422694 PMCID: PMC4589389 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138208
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Community and Environment in Rural America (CERA) and Communities and Forests in Oregon (CAFOR) surveys that carried the climate-beliefs question.
Conducted by Carsey School of Public Policy (formerly Carsey Institute) researchers over 2010 to 2014.[18][19][20] N denotes the number of interviews.
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| November 2010–January 2011: Harlan and Lechter Counties in coal country of Kentucky (n = 1,020) |
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| August–October 2014: Baker, Crook, Grant, Umatilla, Union, Wallowa and Wheeler Counties, Oregon (n = 1,752) |
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| January–February 2011: Clatsop County, Oregon and Pacific County, Washington (n = 1,023) |
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| August–September 2010: Bay, Franklin and Gulf Counties along the eastern Gulf Coast of Florida (n = 1,005) |
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| Late July–September 2010): Plaquemines and Terrebonne Parishes in coastal Louisiana (n = 1,017) |
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| June–August 2010: Ketchikan Gateway Borough and Prince of Wales Census Area in Southeast Alaska (n = 509) |
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| June 2010: Coos County, New Hampshire; Essex County, Vermont; and Oxford County, Maine are adjacent in northern New England (n = 1,852) |
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| September–October 2011: Baker, Union and Wallowa Counties in northeast Oregon (n = 1,585) |
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| October–November 2010: Clallam and Grays Harbor Counties, on Washington’s Olympic Peninsula (n = 1,013) |
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| January–February 2012: King, Kitsap, Mason and Pierce Counties, in the Puget Sound area of Washington (n = 1,302) |
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| November–December 2010, with a small number of interviews in February 2011: Haines, Juneau, Sitka, Skagway, Wrangell and Yakutat Boroughs, along with the Hoonah-Angoon and Petersburg Census Areas, all in Southeast Alaska (n = 1,033) |
Fig 2(A) Now/human response by date of survey, and (B) broken down by political party, spring 2010 to spring 2015.
Surveys graphed at median interview dates, and shown with 95% confidence intervals.
Individual characteristics (all surveys), and county (CERA/CAFOR) or season, daily temperature anomaly and year (GSP), as predictors of belief that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities.
Odds ratios from weighted logistic regression.
| GSS | NCERA | IME | CERA | GSP | |
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| national | national | national | regional | state | |
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| 0.995 | 0.987 | 0.985 | 0.983 | 0.985 |
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| 1.116 | 1.129 | 1.074 | 1.213 | 1.334 |
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| 1.210 | 1.249 | 1.218 | 1.205 | 1.202 |
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| 0.566 | 0.482 | 0.427 | 0.425 | 0.389 |
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| 0.821 | 0.785 | 0.850 | 0.748 | 0.780 |
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| . . . | . . . | . . . | (p < .001) | . . . |
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| . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . | 1.018 |
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| Winter | . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . |
| Spring | . . . | . . . | . . . | … | 1.026 |
| Summer | . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . | 1.145 |
| Fall | . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . | 1.028 |
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| . . . | . . . | . . . | . . . | 1.067 |
| estimation sample | 1,242 | 1,714 | 960 | 11,554 | 10,567 |
* p < .05
** p < 0.1
*** p < .001
Fig 1(A) Response percentages for climate-change question on 3 national and 21 statewide New Hampshire surveys; (B) percentage choosing the now/human response on 11 CERA/CAFOR surveys.
Respondents who said they do not know, or gave no answer, are categorized as DK/NA in (A).
Fig 3Probability of now/human response in GSS, NCERA, CERA/CAFOR and GSP surveys as a function of education, by political identification.
Adjusted marginal plots with 95% confidence intervals calculated from the logistic regression models in Table 2.