Aveni Haynes1, Max K Bulsara2, Carol Bower1, Timothy W Jones1,3,4, Elizabeth A Davis5,6,7. 1. Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia. 2. Institute of Health and Rehabilitation Research, University of Notre Dame, Fremantle, WA, Australia. 3. Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes Mellitus, Princess Margaret Hospital, GPO Box D184, Perth, WA, 6840, Australia. 4. School of Paediatrics and Child Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia. 5. Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia. Elizabeth.Davis@health.wa.gov.au. 6. Department of Endocrinology and Diabetes Mellitus, Princess Margaret Hospital, GPO Box D184, Perth, WA, 6840, Australia. Elizabeth.Davis@health.wa.gov.au. 7. School of Paediatrics and Child Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia. Elizabeth.Davis@health.wa.gov.au.
Abstract
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and incidence rate trends for type 1 diabetes mellitus in children aged 0-14 years, Australia-wide, from 2000 to 2011. METHODS: Cases of type 1 diabetes mellitus diagnosed in 0- to 14-year-olds were identified from the National (insulin-treated) Diabetes Register, with a 97% ascertainment rate. Annual age-standardised, sex- and age-specific incidences were calculated and Poisson regression was used to analyse the incidence by calendar year, sex and age at diagnosis. Non-linear temporal trends were analysed using sine and cosine functions applied to Poisson regression models for 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 year cycles, and the Akaike information criterion was used to assess goodness of fit. RESULTS: A total of 11,575 cases (6,049 boys and 5,526 girls) of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus were registered between 2000 and 2011, giving a mean incidence of 23.6 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2, 24.0). The mean incidence was 4.9% (95% CI 1.1%, 8.8%) higher in boys than in girls. Compared with 0- to 4-year-olds, the mean incidence was 65% higher in 5- to 9-year-olds and 208% higher in 10- to 14-year-olds. A 5 year cyclical variation in incidence was observed overall, in both sexes and in all age groups. An average annual increase in incidence was observed only in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (increase of 1.2% per year [95% CI 0.4%, 2.1%]). CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: A sinusoidal pattern was observed in the incidence rate trend of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in Australia. The 5-yearly peaks and troughs in incidence rate trends observed Australia-wide corroborate findings previously reported for Western Australia and require further investigation.
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence and incidence rate trends for type 1 diabetes mellitus in children aged 0-14 years, Australia-wide, from 2000 to 2011. METHODS: Cases of type 1 diabetes mellitus diagnosed in 0- to 14-year-olds were identified from the National (insulin-treated) Diabetes Register, with a 97% ascertainment rate. Annual age-standardised, sex- and age-specific incidences were calculated and Poisson regression was used to analyse the incidence by calendar year, sex and age at diagnosis. Non-linear temporal trends were analysed using sine and cosine functions applied to Poisson regression models for 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 year cycles, and the Akaike information criterion was used to assess goodness of fit. RESULTS: A total of 11,575 cases (6,049 boys and 5,526 girls) of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus were registered between 2000 and 2011, giving a mean incidence of 23.6 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2, 24.0). The mean incidence was 4.9% (95% CI 1.1%, 8.8%) higher in boys than in girls. Compared with 0- to 4-year-olds, the mean incidence was 65% higher in 5- to 9-year-olds and 208% higher in 10- to 14-year-olds. A 5 year cyclical variation in incidence was observed overall, in both sexes and in all age groups. An average annual increase in incidence was observed only in the 10- to 14-year-old age group (increase of 1.2% per year [95% CI 0.4%, 2.1%]). CONCLUSIONS/ INTERPRETATION: A sinusoidal pattern was observed in the incidence rate trend of childhood type 1 diabetes mellitus in Australia. The 5-yearly peaks and troughs in incidence rate trends observed Australia-wide corroborate findings previously reported for Western Australia and require further investigation.
Entities:
Keywords:
Australia; Childhood; Epidemiology; Incidence; Type 1 diabetes mellitus
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