Julia Gilhodes1, Aurélien Belot2, Anne-Marie Bouvier3, Laurent Remontet4, Patricia Delafosse5, Karine Ligier6, Agnès Rogel7. 1. Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Département des Maladies Chroniques et Traumatismes, 12 rue du val d'Osne, 94410 Saint Maurice, France; Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, F-69003, Lyon, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, F-69100, Villeurbanne, France. 2. Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Département des Maladies Chroniques et Traumatismes, 12 rue du val d'Osne, 94410 Saint Maurice, France; Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, F-69003, Lyon, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, F-69100, Villeurbanne, France; CNRS, UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique-Sante, F-69100, Villeurbanne, France; Cancer Research UK Cancer Survival Group, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK. 3. Francim, Réseau francais des registres des cancers, Francim, F-31073 Toulouse, France; Registre Bourguignon des Cancers Digestifs INSERM U866, CHU Dijon, Université de Dijon, Faculté de Médecine, Dijon, France. 4. Hospices Civils de Lyon, Service de Biostatistique, F-69003, Lyon, France; Université de Lyon, F-69000, Lyon, France; Université Lyon 1, F-69100, Villeurbanne, France; CNRS, UMR 5558, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, Equipe Biostatistique-Sante, F-69100, Villeurbanne, France. 5. Francim, Réseau francais des registres des cancers, Francim, F-31073 Toulouse, France; Registre du cancer du département de l'Isere, CHU de Grenoble, F-38000 Grenoble, France. 6. Francim, Réseau francais des registres des cancers, Francim, F-31073 Toulouse, France; Registre général des cancers de Lille et de sa région, F-59120 Loos, France. 7. Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Département des Maladies Chroniques et Traumatismes, 12 rue du val d'Osne, 94410 Saint Maurice, France. Electronic address: a.rogel@invs.sante.fr.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Tobacco is currently the largest risk factor for cancers of the lung, lip/oral cavity/pharynx (LOCP) and esophagus. Variations in tobacco consumption over time have led to changes in cancer incidence in the general population. Data on the incidence of cancers at these sites in adults aged 20-44 years old are scarce. Our objective was to provide estimates of incidence trends for these cancers in France among this age group over the last 30 years. METHODS: Observed incidence data over the period 1982-2010 for the 20-44 age group were provided from six cancer registries (eight for esophagus) covering approximately 6% of the French population. Age-period-cohort models were used on the observed period, and estimates of cancer incidence for France in 2012 were provided on the basis of short-term predictions. RESULTS: In men, a sharp decline was observed over time for LOCP and esophageal cancers, while lung cancer saw only a slight decline. In women, a large increase was seen in lung cancer incidence, while LOCP cancer incidence did not vary significantly. CONCLUSION: Smoking behaviors among adults aged 20-44 impact incidence trends in cancers of the lung, LOCP and esophagus, although other factors are involved, particularly in LOCP and esophageal cancers. Our results highlight the importance of preventative efforts which particularly target women aged 20-44. Efforts to curb tobacco smoking in men should also be pursued.
BACKGROUND:Tobacco is currently the largest risk factor for cancers of the lung, lip/oral cavity/pharynx (LOCP) and esophagus. Variations in tobacco consumption over time have led to changes in cancer incidence in the general population. Data on the incidence of cancers at these sites in adults aged 20-44 years old are scarce. Our objective was to provide estimates of incidence trends for these cancers in France among this age group over the last 30 years. METHODS: Observed incidence data over the period 1982-2010 for the 20-44 age group were provided from six cancer registries (eight for esophagus) covering approximately 6% of the French population. Age-period-cohort models were used on the observed period, and estimates of cancer incidence for France in 2012 were provided on the basis of short-term predictions. RESULTS: In men, a sharp decline was observed over time for LOCP and esophageal cancers, while lung cancer saw only a slight decline. In women, a large increase was seen in lung cancer incidence, while LOCP cancer incidence did not vary significantly. CONCLUSION: Smoking behaviors among adults aged 20-44 impact incidence trends in cancers of the lung, LOCP and esophagus, although other factors are involved, particularly in LOCP and esophageal cancers. Our results highlight the importance of preventative efforts which particularly target women aged 20-44. Efforts to curb tobacco smoking in men should also be pursued.
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