Prediction and prevention of type 1 diabetes: update on success of prediction and struggles at prevention.

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is the archetypal example of a T cell-mediated autoimmune disease characterized by selective destruction of pancreatic β cells. The pathogenic equation for T1DM presents a complex interrelation of genetic and environmental factors, most of which have yet to be identified. On the basis of observed familial aggregation of T1DM, it is certain that there is a decided heritable genetic susceptibility for developing T1DM. The well-known association of T1DM with certain human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) was a major step toward understanding the role of inheritance in T1DM. Type 1 diabetes is a polygenic disease with a small number of genes having large effects (e.g., HLA) and a large number of genes having small effects. Risk of T1DM progression is conferred by specific HLA DR/DQ alleles [e.g., DRB1*03-DQB1*0201 (DR3/DQ2) or DRB1*04-DQB1*0302 (DR4/DQ8)]. In addition, the HLA allele DQB1*0602 is associated with dominant protection from T1DM in multiple populations. A concordance rate lower than 100% between monozygotic twins indicates a potential involvement of environmental factors on disease development. The detection of at least two islet autoantibodies in the blood is virtually pre-diagnostic for T1DM. The majority of children who carry these biomarkers, regardless of whether they have an a priori family history of the disease, will develop insulin-requiring diabetes. Facilitating pre-diagnosis is the timing of seroconversion which is most pronounced in the first 2 yr of life. Unfortunately the significant progress in improving prediction of T1DM has not yet been paralleled by safe and efficacious intervention strategies aimed at preventing the disease. Herein we summarize the chequered history of prediction and prevention of T1DM, describing successes and failures alike, and thereafter examine future trends in the exciting, partially explored field of T1DM prevention.