| Literature DB >> 26154163 |
Erxu Pi1, Liqun Qu1, Xi Tang2, Tingting Peng1, Bo Jiang3, Jiangfeng Guo4, Hongfei Lu2, Liqun Du1.
Abstract
Temperature is a predominant environmental factor affecting grass germination and distribution. Various thermal-germination models for prediction of grass seed germination have been reported, in which the relationship between temperature and germination were defined with kernel functions, such as quadratic or quintic function. However, their prediction accuracies warrant further improvements. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relative prediction accuracies of genetic algorithm (GA) models, which are automatically parameterized with observed germination data. The seeds of five P. pratensis (Kentucky bluegrass, KB) cultivars were germinated under 36 day/night temperature regimes ranging from 5/5 to 40/40 °C with 5 °C increments. Results showed that optimal germination percentages of all five tested KB cultivars were observed under a fluctuating temperature regime of 20/25 °C. Meanwhile, the constant temperature regimes (e.g., 5/5, 10/10, 15/15 °C, etc.) suppressed the germination of all five cultivars. Furthermore, the back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) algorithm was integrated to optimize temperature-germination response models from these observed germination data. It was found that integrations of GA-BP-ANN (back propagation aided genetic algorithm artificial neural network) significantly reduced the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values from 0.21~0.23 to 0.02~0.09. In an effort to provide a more reliable prediction of optimum sowing time for the tested KB cultivars in various regions in the country, the optimized GA-BP-ANN models were applied to map spatial and temporal germination percentages of blue grass cultivars in China. Our results demonstrate that the GA-BP-ANN model is a convenient and reliable option for constructing thermal-germination response models since it automates model parameterization and has excellent prediction accuracy.Entities:
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Year: 2015 PMID: 26154163 PMCID: PMC4496032 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131489
Source DB: PubMed Journal: PLoS One ISSN: 1932-6203 Impact factor: 3.240
Cumulative seed germination of ‘Midnight II’ at different days in 36 temperature regimes (50 seeds in total).
| Cool period temperature (°C) 16h | Warm period temperature (°C) 8h | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | |
| % Germination after 15–20 days | ||||||||
| 5 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 6.0±4.0 | 50.7±5.0 | 43.3±9.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.7±1.2 |
| 10 | 6.0±0.0 | 16.7±2.3 | 28.0±2.0 | 66.7±4.3 | 74.0±3.5 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |
| 15 | 25.3±7.0 | 46.0±6.9 | 78.0±6.0 | 72.0±7.2 | 34.0±6.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||
| 20 | 23.3±9.5 | 80.7±1.2 | 81.3±8.1 | 64.0±2.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |||
| 25 | 18.7±1.3 | 78.7±10.3 | 68.7±5.8 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||
| 30 | 38.7±9.0 | 24.7±4.6 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||
| 35 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||||
| 40 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||||
Cumulative seed germination of ‘Sapphire’ at different days in 36 temperature regimes (50 seeds in total).
| Cool period temperature (°C) 16h | Warm period temperature (°C) 8h | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | |
| % Germination after 15–20 days | ||||||||
| 5 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 18.0±3.5 | 50.7±1.2 | 49.3±4.6 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 |
| 10 | 5.3±3.1 | 11.3±6.1 | 33.3±4.2 | 68.7±6.1 | 67.3±7.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |
| 15 | 15.3±3.1 | 50.7±5.0 | 84.7±6.4 | 80.7±5.0 | 50.7±11.7 | 0.0±0.0 | ||
| 20 | 26.0±2.0 | 78.7±10.3 | 85.3±6.1 | 60.0±5.3 | 0.0±0.0 | |||
| 25 | 19.3±3.1 | 78.0±8.0 | 55.3±7.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||
| 30 | 24.7±11.0 | 27.3±15.3 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||
| 35 | 0.7±1.2 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||||
| 40 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||||
Comparison of the temperature–germination profiles for the five bluegrass cultivars.
| Germination parameter | Sources | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midnight II | Diva | Rugby II | Leopard | Sapphire | |
| % | |||||
| Profile mean | 28.5 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 29.3 | 28.6 |
| Regimes with some germination | 63.9 | 61.1 | 63.9 | 61.1 | 61.1 |
| Maximum germination | 81.3 | 82.0 | 85.3 | 87.3 | 85.3 |
| Mean of some germination | 44.6 | 47.8 | 45.3 | 47.9 | 46.8 |
| Mean of optima | 76.2 | 77.8 | 81.5 | 78.0 | 80.5 |
The RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values of different models for predicting temperature-germination response functions of the five P. Pratenis cultivars tested.
| Cultivar | Model | RMSE |
|---|---|---|
| Midnight II | General quadratic | 0.21 |
| BP-ANN quadratic | 0.21 | |
| Quintic | 0.11 | |
| BP-ANN quintic | 0.08 | |
| GA-BP-ANN | 0.02 | |
| Diva | General quadratic | 0.21 |
| BP-ANN quadratic | 0.21 | |
| Quintic | 0.09 | |
| BP-ANN quintic | 0.07 | |
| GA-BP-ANN | 0.02 | |
| Rugby II | General quadratic | 0.21 |
| BP-ANN quadratic | 0.20 | |
| Quintic | 0.11 | |
| BP-ANN quintic | 0.10 | |
| GA-BP-ANN | 0.09 | |
| Leopard | General quadratic | 0.23 |
| BP-ANN quadratic | 0.21 | |
| Quintic | 0.08 | |
| BP-ANN quintic | 0.07 | |
| GA-BP-ANN | 0.06 | |
| Sapphire | General quadratic | 0.21 |
| BP-ANN quadratic | 0.20 | |
| Quintic | 0.07 | |
| BP-ANN quintic | 0.07 | |
| GA-BP-ANN | 0.02 |
ANN: Artificial Neural Network.
Fig 1Maps of monthly germination suitability of ‘Midnight II’ in different regions of China; (A-L) January–December.
Fig 5Maps of monthly germination suitability of ‘Sapphire’ in different regions of China; (A-L) January–December.
Fig 3Maps of monthly germination suitability of ‘Rugby II’ in different regions of China; (A-L) January–December.
Fig 4Maps of monthly germination suitability of ‘Leopard’ in different regions of China; (A-L) January–December.
Cumulative seed germination of ‘Diva’ at different days in 36 temperature regimes (50 seeds in total).
| Cool period temperature (°C) 16h | Warm period temperature (°C) 8h | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | |
| % Germination after 15–20 days | ||||||||
| 5 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 6.7±1.2 | 44.7±2.3 | 44.0±8.7 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 |
| 10 | 6.0±0.0 | 13.3±4.2 | 35.3±3.1 | 77.3±3.1 | 73.3±17.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |
| 15 | 14.0±2.0 | 52.7±4.2 | 79.3±6.4 | 82.0±5.3 | 40.0±3.5 | 0.0±0.0 | ||
| 20 | 20.0±2.0 | 82.0±5.3 | 81.3±8.1 | 69.3±8.1 | 0.0±0.0 | |||
| 25 | 26.0±4.0 | 78.0±8.0 | 53.3±4.2 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||
| 30 | 35.3±7.0 | 38.7±3.1 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||
| 35 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||||
| 40 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||||
Cumulative seed germination of ‘Rugby II’ at different days in 36 temperature regimes (50 seeds in total).
| Cool period temperature (°C) 16h | Warm period temperature (°C) 8h | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | |
| % Germination after 15–20 days | ||||||||
| 5 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 10.7±3.1 | 44.0±7.2 | 52.7±8.1 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 |
| 10 | 6.0±2.0 | 8.7±3.1 | 38.0±8.0 | 63.3±3.1 | 69.3±2.3 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |
| 15 | 19.3±3.1 | 58.7±2.3 | 70.7±5.0 | 80.7±9.2 | 44.0±2.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||
| 20 | 27.3±1.2 | 64.7±25.0 | 87.3±3.1 | 76.0±8.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |||
| 25 | 22.0±2.0 | 79.3±5.0 | 46.0±2.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||
| 30 | 33.3±4.2 | 52.0±7.2 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||
| 35 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||||
| 40 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||||
Cumulative seed germination of ‘Leopard’ at different days in 36 temperature regimes (50 seeds in total).
| Cool period temperature (°C) 16h | Warm period temperature (°C) 8h | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 40 | |
| % Germination after 15–20 days | ||||||||
| 5 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 4.0±2.0 | 45.3±4.2 | 47.3±3.1 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 |
| 10 | 6.0±0.0 | 10.0±0.0 | 38.0±6.0 | 65.3±5.0 | 61.3±5.0 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |
| 15 | 24.7±6.1 | 58.0±10.0 | 77.3±7.0 | 80.0±3.5 | 46.7±11.7 | 0.0±0.0 | ||
| 20 | 26.0±2.0 | 80.7±2.3 | 85.3±3.1 | 61.3±7.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |||
| 25 | 16.0±2.0 | 79.3±5.0 | 51.3±6.4 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||
| 30 | 33.3±8.3 | 43.3±7.0 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||
| 35 | 0.0±0.0 | 0.0±0.0 | ||||||
| 40 | 0.0±0.0 | |||||||