| Literature DB >> 26109873 |
Olena Mandrik1, Saskia Knies2, Johan L Severens3.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: An economic value calculation was performed to estimate the lifetime net present value of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.Entities:
Keywords: developing countries; economic value of life; in vitro fertilization
Year: 2015 PMID: 26109873 PMCID: PMC4472064 DOI: 10.2147/CEOR.S79513
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Clinicoecon Outcomes Res ISSN: 1178-6981
Neonatal costs of IVF population in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (US$)
| Parameter | Ukraine | Belarus | Kazakhstan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drugs costs | |||
| Option 1 IVF costs per cycle(47% cycles) | 741 | 1,795 | 927 |
| Option 2 IVF costs per cycle (43% cycles) | 538 | 1,129 | 1,243 |
| Option 3 IVF costs per cycle(10% of cycles) | 782 | 1,902 | 905 |
| Medical supplies IVF costsper cycle | 75 | 88 | 79 |
| Average drugs and supplies costs, per one cycle | 732 | 1,607 | 1,049 |
| Health care expenditures per one IVF cycle | 48 | 58 | 147 |
| Health care pregnancy and delivery expenditures, per one birth | 153 | 287 | 409 |
| Average costs neededto achieve one IVF birth | 2,599 | 5,509 | 4,157 |
Abbreviation: IVF, in vitro fertilization.
Figure 1Projected net present value for child conceived by IVF in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
Abbreviations: IVF, in vitro fertilization; NPV, net present value.
Cost and income of IVF-conceived population in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan
| Scenario | Lifetime NPV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Belarus | Kazakhstan | |
| Expenses | |||
| Social (maternity) support and sick leaves | 2,976 | 5,734 | 5,700 |
| Education | 4,045 | 6,021 | 7,050 |
| Health care costs | 7,617 | 35,463 | 42,024 |
| Unemployment | 31 | 2.17 | 52,342 |
| Pension | 8,881 | 55,852 | 45,125 |
| Total state expenseson IVF population | 26,150 | 106,580 | 104,108 |
| Revenue | |||
| Revenue from population Net income | 37,687 | 128,282 | 106,403 |
| Net present value of IVF | 9,839 | 21,702 | 2,295 |
| Net present value of IVF incountry-specific scenarios | 8,879 | 21,139 | 2,040 |
Note:
Average per birth.
Abbreviations: IVF, in vitro fertilization; NPV, net present value.
One-way sensitivity analysis (mothers’ age, IVF drug costs, and discounting rate)
| Scenario | Lifetime NPV (US$)
| ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Belarus | Kazakhstan | |
| NPV of child conceived by IVF, mother aged <35 years (40.1% success rate) | 10,339 | 22,770 | 3,061 |
| NPV of child conceived by IVF, mother aged 38–40 years (21.6% success rate) | 8,673 | 19,212 | 507 |
| NPV of child conceived by IVF, mother aged 41–42 years (12.2% success rate) | 5,890 | 13,270 | Negative |
| NPV of child conceived by IVF, mother aged >42 years (4.2% success rate) | Negative | Negative | Negative |
| Cost of IVF drugs, 50% increase | 8,691 | 19,183 | 650 |
| Cost of IVF drugs, 100% increase | 7,544 | 16,663 | Negative |
| Break-even cost of IVF drugs and supplies per cycle, $ | 3,870 | 8,530 | 1,780 |
| Cost of pregnancy and delivery, 50% increase | 9,782 | 21,583 | 2,150 |
| Discounting rate, 0% | 10,986 | Negative | Negative |
| Discounting rate, 5% | 1,544 | 13,907 | 1,826 |
| Discounting rate, 10% | Negative | Negative | Negative |
Abbreviations: IVF, in vitro fertilization; NPV, net present value.
Input parameters in deterministic and probabilistic models
| Parameter | Country | Deterministic data | Minimum meaning | Maximum meaning | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP, $ | Ukraine | 3,615 | 2,985.5 | 7,600 | 1–3 |
| Belarus | 6,480 | 5,820 | 16,000 | 1,3,4 | |
| Kazakhstan | 11,356 | 11,356 | 13,900 | 1,3 | |
| GDP growth, % | Ukraine | 4.03 | 0.20 | 5.20 | 5,6 |
| Belarus | 7.74 | 4.30 | 7.74 | 5,6 | |
| Kazakhstan | 7.46 | 1.2 | 8.9 | 5 | |
| Total tax rates as % from salaries | Ukraine | 55.36 | 33.60 | 55.36 | 7 |
| Belarus | 47.54 | 42.79 | 52.29 | 8 | |
| Kazakhstan | 31.00 | 31.00 | 37.20 | 9 | |
| Average monthly salary for males, $ | Ukraine | 379.37 | 289.75 | 637.91 | 2 |
| Belarus | 483.94 | 421.49 | 620.14 | 10,11 | |
| Kazakhstan | 779.00 | 598.85 | 1,564.53 | 12–14 | |
| Average monthly salary for females, $ | Ukraine | 301.73 | 230.45 | 507.35 | 2 |
| Belarus | 384.90 | 335.22 | 439.22 | 10–12 | |
| Kazakhstan | 410.85 | 315.77 | 824.98 | 13–15 | |
| Average monthly pension, $ | Ukraine | 129.24 | 104.84 | 145.72 | 2,16,17 |
| Belarus | 219.94 | 99.32 | 228.44 | 11,12 | |
| Kazakhstan | 240.24 | 192.19 | 269.07 | 18 | |
| Average monthly unemployment support, $ | Ukraine | 82.02 | 68.06 | 103.22 | 2,16,17 |
| Belarus | 17.00 | 13.33 | 20.00 | 19 | |
| Kazakhstan | 119.72 | 95.78 | 143.66 | 20 | |
| Unemployed from working population, % | Ukraine | 7.00 | 6.40 | 8.80 | 2,21 |
| Belarus | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.60 | 19,22 | |
| Kazakhstan | 5.20 | 5.20 | 6.60 | 14,23,24 | |
| Retired population working, % | Ukraine | 15.00 | 13.50 | 18.00 | 2 |
| Belarus | 22.00 | 19.80 | 26.40 | 12 | |
| Kazakhstan | 16.00 | 14.40 | 19.20 | 14 | |
| Retirement age males, years | Ukraine | 60 | 60 | 65 | 16,25 |
| Belarus | 6 | 60 | 65 | 16,25 | |
| Kazakhstan | 63 | 63 | 65 | 25,26 | |
| Retirement age females, years | Ukraine | 60 | 60 | 65 | 16,25 |
| Belarus | 55 | 55 | 65 | 16,25 | |
| Kazakhstan | 58 | 58 | 65 | 25,26 | |
| State expenditure on education, $ | Ukraine | 247.94 | 191.60 | 253.05 | 2,27 |
| Belarus | 291.60 | 336.96 | 453.60 | 22,28 | |
| Kazakhstan | 352.65 | 340.68 | 681.36 | 24,28 | |
| State expenditure on health care, $ | Ukraine | 231.49 | 231.49 | 253.05 | 29 |
| Belarus | 362.88 | 362.88 | 453.80 | 29 | |
| Kazakhstan | 488.31 | 488.31 | 794.92 | 29 | |
| Fertility success rate, % | 31.9 | 31.20 | 32.5 | 30 | |
| Discounting, % | 3.00 | – | – | 31 |
Notes:
Assumption 22.8% difference in male/female salaries according to state statistics report (Ukraine);2
assumption 61.9% difference in male/female salaries according to state statistics report (Kazakhstan);14
average monthly support received for 12 months;
average monthly support received for maximum 4 months (under the law “On obligatory social insurance” of the Republic of Kazakhstan);
assumed that retirement age will not be lowered from existing.
Abbreviation: GDP, gross domestic product.