Predicting disability pension - depression as hazard: a 10 year population-based cohort study in Norway.

Disability pension (DP) is an escalating challenge to individuals and the welfare state, with mental health problems as imminent hazard. The objective of the present paper was to determine if a diagnosis of depression increased the risk of subsequent DP, and whether the risk differed by gender. A population cohort of 1230 persons were diagnostically interviewed (Composite International Diagnostic Interview, CIDI) in a population study examining mental health, linked to the DP registry and followed for 10 years. The risk for DP following depression was estimated using Cox regression. Life-time depression, as well as current depression, increased the risk of subsequent DP for both genders. The fully adjusted [baseline health, health behavior and socio-economic status (SES)] hazard ratios (HRs) for life-time depressed men and women were 2.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-5.8] and 1.6 (95% CI 1.0-2.5) respectively. Men were significantly older at time of DP. There are reasons to believe that depression went under-recognized and under-treated. To augment knowledge in the field, without underestimating depression as risk for DP, a deeper understanding of the nature and effects of other distress is needed.