| Literature DB >> 25694771 |
Jens Olsen1, Tine Rikke Jørgensen2.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the consequences of a national immunization program with HPV vaccine for both boys and girls in Denmark, including the prophylactic effects on all potentially vaccine preventable HPV-associated diseases in male and female.Entities:
Keywords: Cancer; Cost-effectiveness; Gender neutral vaccination; Genital warts; HPV-related diseases; HPV-vaccination
Year: 2015 PMID: 25694771 PMCID: PMC4331443 DOI: 10.1186/s12962-015-0029-9
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cost Eff Resour Alloc ISSN: 1478-7547
Parameters applied in the HPV transmission model
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| Age groups included | 10-78 years, present Danish age distribution | Age distribution: Statistics Denmark |
| Gender | Man/woman | Fixed at 50% |
| Concurrent partners | 0, 1 or 2, uniform/block distribution | Estimate. |
| Duration of relationship (in months) | Based on estimate, dependent of age, that is the older the longer duration (Y = abs random-normal (0.8·age – 12) (age/0.5)·12). | Estimate |
| Frequency of sexual intercourse | Random-gamma distribution with a mean of 9.48 per month; SD 9.95 | Burchell et al. [ |
| Vaccination status | 0 or 1 | |
| HPV-specific: | ||
| Duration of HPV 6 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 11 months | The estimate is set in order to calibrate the model before introduction of a vaccine |
| Duration of HPV 11 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 9.5 months | |
| Duration of HPV 16 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 13 months | |
| Duration of HPV 18 infection (in months) | Exponential distribution with a mean of 11 months | |
| HPV → CIN1 | 0.0049 per month (probability) | |
| CIN1 → HPV/clear (regress) | 0.329 per year (probability) | Elbasha et al. [ |
| CIN1 → CIN2 | 0.46 per year (probability) | The estimate is set in order to calibrate the model before introduction of a vaccine |
| CIN2 → CIN1 (regress) | 0.1 per year (probability) | |
| CIN2 → CIN3 | 0.60 per year (probability) | |
| CIN3 → CIN2 (regress) | 0.02 per year (probability) | |
| CIN3 → cervical cancer | 0.37 per year (probability) | |
| HPV 6/11 → genital warts | 0.30 per year (probability) | |
| Risk of infection | ||
| −for HPV 6/11/16 per intercourse | 0.3 | Elbasha et al. [ |
| −for HPV 18 per intercourse | 0.13 | Modified compared to the HPV 16 risk to take into account a lower HPV 18 prevalence |
| Vaccine efficacy | 100% |
QALY weights applied
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| Age group | QALY | QALY | Occurrence/illness | Utility score2 | Duration |
| 15-19 | 0.9373 | 0.9203 | |||
| 20-24 | 0.9373 | 0.9203 | CIN1 | 0.93 | 2 months |
| 25-29 | 0.9373 | 0.9203 | |||
| 30-34 | 0.9355 | 0.9118 | CIN2-3 | 0.87 | 2 months |
| 35-39 | 0.9197 | 0.8898 | |||
| 40-44 | 0.9118 | 0.8763 | Genital warts | 0.91 | 85 days |
| 45-49 | 0.9050 | 0.8751 | |||
| 50-54 | 0.8813 | 0.8499 | Cervical cancer, fatal | 0.76-0, 67 | |
| 55-59 | 0.8870 | 0.8542 | Cervical cancer, survivors | 0.76 | 5 years |
| 60-64 | 0.8747 | 0.8552 | |||
| 65-69 | 0.8801 | 0.8098 | Genital cancer, fatal | 0.76-0.67 | |
| 70-74 | 0.8437 | 0.8320 | Genital cancer, survivors | 0.76 | 5 years |
| 75-79 | 0.8429 | 0.7837 | |||
| 80-84 | 0.7855 | 0.6919 | Head & neck cancer, fatal | 0.76-0.67 | |
| 85- | 0.7855 | 0.6919 | Head & neck cancer, survivors | 0.76 | 5 years |
1Unpublished data from survey performed by National Institute of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark (personal communication). These data, pooled with two other Danish surveys, are published on a more aggregate level in Sørensen et al., 2009 [31].
2Source: [18].
Cost estimates
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| Vaccination cost | 417 € | Cost estimates in [ |
| Treatment costs – genital warts | 247 € | |
| Treatment/control CIN1 and atypia | 34 € | |
| Treatment costs CIN2-3 | 2,780 € | |
| Treatment costs cervical cancer | 25,546 € | |
| Treatment costs genital cancer | 24,640 € | Weighted average based on [ |
| Treatment costs head & neck cancer | 30,400 € | Weighted average based on [ |
2008 price level. PV: present value. Applied discount rate: 3%.
Results: Cost-effectiveness of HPV-vaccination in Denmark including protection against genital cancer and head & neck cancer
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| Vaccinations of girls vs. screening alone: | ||||||||
| Base case result* | 11,504,613 | 9,480,325 | 2,024,288 | 528.5 | 565.3 | 3,830 | 3,581 | |
| Cervical cancer | 197 | |||||||
| Anogenital cancer | 80 | |||||||
| Head and neck cancer | 43 | |||||||
| Univariate sensitivity analysis: | ||||||||
| Discount rate 0% | 11,504,613 | 19,622,317 | - 8,117,704 | 1,706.5 | 1,645.5 | Dominance | Dominance | |
| Discount rate 5% | 11,504,613 | 6,603,582 | 4,901,031 | 265.3 | 312.5 | 18,476 | 15,682 | |
| Costs discounted with 3% and LYG & QALYs with 0% | 11,504,613 | 9,480,325 | 2,024,288 | 1,706.5 | 1,645.5 | 1,186 | 1,230 | |
| Vaccine price reduced by 25% | 8,967,267 | 9,480,325 | −513,058 | 528.5 | 565.3 | Dominance | Dominance | |
| 2-dose regime | 8,121,485 | 9,480,325 | −1,358,840 | 528.5 | 565.3 | Dominance | Dominance | |
| Treatment cost reduced by 25% | 11,504,613 | 7,055,464 | 4,449,149 | 528.5 | 565.3 | 8,418 | 7,870 | |
| Time horizon 40 years | 11,504,613 | 8,450,127 | 3,054,486 | 425.2 | 472.2 | 7,184 | 6,469 | |
| Bivalent HPV vaccination (HPV types 16 & 18) | 11,504,613 | 5,269,690 | 6,234,923 | 528.5 | 505.1 | 11,797 | 12,345 | |
| Protection against head and neck cancer excluded: | 11,504,613 | 9,159,308 | 2,345,305 | 432.1 | 470.4 | 5,428 | 4,985 | |
| 70% vaccination rate | 9,474,387 | 9,320,914 | 153,473 | 489.2 | 551.9 | 314 | 278 | |
| Cervical cancer | 192 | |||||||
| Anogenital cancer | 77 | |||||||
| Head and neck cancer | 42 | |||||||
| Vaccination of girls & boys vs. girls: | ||||||||
| Base case result** | 11,858,601 | 1,186,760 | 10,671,841 | 263 | 256 | 40,615 | 41,636 | |
| Cervical cancer | 5 | |||||||
| Anogenital cancer | 34 | |||||||
| Head and neck cancer | 98 | |||||||
| Univariate sensitivity analysis: | ||||||||
| Discount rate 0% | 11,858,601 | 4,298,652 | 7,559,950 | 889 | 863 | 8,500 | 8,763 | |
| Discount rate 5% | 11,858,601 | 587,457 | 11,271,144 | 124 | 122 | 90,704 | 92,015 | |
| Vaccine price reduced by 25% | 9,243,183 | 1,186,760 | 8,056,423 | 263 | 256 | 30,661 | 31,432 | |
| 2-dose regime | 8,371,377 | 1,186,760 | 7,184,617 | 263 | 256 | 27,343 | 28,031 | |
| Time horizon 40 years | 11,858,601 | 1,194,383 | 10,664,218 | 239 | 225 | 44,674 | 47,342 | |
| Protection against head and neck cancer excluded | 1,858,601 | 459,212 | 11,399,389 | 42 | 41 | 269,857 | 276,642 | |
| 70% vaccination rate | 9,765,907 | 1,281,863 | 8,484,044 | 301 | 268 | 28,146 | 31,615 |
2008 price level.
*Vaccination over 62 years (implying that the incremental costs and effects are calculated as an average over the 62 years, assuming vaccination from the first year and onward) of 12-year-old girls compared to screening alone, 85% vaccination rate, discount rate 3%, 100% vaccine efficacy, vaccine price: € 123 per dose ex. VAT (=market price, source www.promedicin.dk, 10th of May, 2012).
**Vaccination over 62 years of 12-year-old girls and boys compared to 12-year-old girls alone, 85% vaccination rate, discount rate 3%, 100% vaccine efficacy, vaccine price: € 123 per dose ex. VAT (=market price, source www.promedicin.dk, 10th of May, 2012).
PV: present value; QALY: quality-adjusted life-year; ICER: incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; LYG: life-year gained.
Figure 1Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves: proportion of simulations that would be cost-effective given different thresholds values of cost per QALY gained. It should be noted that this multi-way sensitivity analysis did not address all sources of uncertainty as some parameters were not included.