Benjamin H Salampessy1, Jorien Veldwijk2,3, A Jantine Schuit1,4, Karolien van den Brekel-Dijkstra5, Rabin E J Neslo6, G Ardine de Wit1,6, Mattijs S Lambooij1. 1. Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. 2. Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands. jorien.veldwijk@rivm.nl. 3. Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. jorien.veldwijk@rivm.nl. 4. Department of Health Sciences, EMGO Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. 5. Leidsche Rijn Julius Health Care Centers, Utrecht, The Netherlands. 6. Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior. METHODS: 780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients' willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE questionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients' medical records and a second questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level. RESULTS: Based on the estimated utility function, 81.8% of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual participation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9%). Of all individual choices, 74.1% were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44. CONCLUSION: Stated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting.
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior. METHODS: 780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients' willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE questionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients' medical records and a second questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level. RESULTS: Based on the estimated utility function, 81.8% of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual participation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9%). Of all individual choices, 74.1% were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44. CONCLUSION: Stated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting.
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