Modeling of the putative distribution of the arbovirus vector Ochlerotatus japonicus japonicus (Diptera: Culicidae) in Germany.

Today, international travel and global freight transportation are increasing and have a direct influence on the introduction and establishment of non-native mosquito species as well as on the spread of arthropod (mosquito)-borne diseases inside Europe. One of the mosquito species that has become invasive in many areas is the Asian rock pool or bush mosquito Ochlerotatus japonicus japonicus (synonyms: Aedes japonicus japonicus or Hulecoeteomyia japonica japonica). This species was detected in Germany in 2008 for the first time. Until today, three different Oc. j. japonicus populations have been documented. Laboratory studies have shown that Oc. j. japonicus can act as a vector for a variety of disease agents. Thus, the knowledge on its current distribution is essential for different measurements. In the present study, ecological niche models were used to estimate the potential distribution of Oc. j. japonicus in Germany. The aim was to detect areas within Germany that could potentially function as habitats for this species. According to our model, areas in western, southern, and central Germany offer suitable conditions for the mosquito and may therefore be at risk for an invasion of the species. We strongly suggest that those areas should be monitored more intensively in the future. For this purpose, it would also be essential to search for possible dispersal routes as well as for natural barriers.