A new relation between prevalence and incidence of a chronic disease.

In 1991 Keiding published a relation between the age-specific prevalence and incidence of a chronic disease (in Age-specific incidence and prevalence: a statistical perspective. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. A, 154, 371-412). For special cases alternative formulations by differential equations were given recently in Brinks et al. (2013, Deriving age-specific incidence from prevalence with an ordinary differential equation. Statist. Med., 32, 2070-2078) and in Brinks & Landwehr (2014, Age- and time-dependent model of the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and application to dementia in Germany, Theor. Popul. Biol., 92, 62-68). From these works, we generalize formulations and discuss the advantages of the novel approach. As an implication, we obtain a new way of estimating the incidence rate of a chronic disease from prevalence data. This enables us to employ cross-sectional studies where otherwise expensive and lengthy follow-up studies are needed. This article illustrates and validates the novel method in a simulation study about dementia in Germany. © The authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications.