OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence. METHODS: We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25-74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 6.0-9.0%) in 1997 increasing to 16.2% (95% CI: 15.5-21.1%) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5% (28.6% in men and 35.1% in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10% and smoking decreases by 20% in 10 years from 2010, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence. METHODS: We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25-74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 6.0-9.0%) in 1997 increasing to 16.2% (95% CI: 15.5-21.1%) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5% (28.6% in men and 35.1% in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10% and smoking decreases by 20% in 10 years from 2010, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.
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Authors: Abdülbari Bener; Abdulla O A A Al-Hamaq; Mustafa Öztürk; Funda Çatan; Parvez I Haris; Kaleem U Rajput; Abdülkadir Ömer Journal: Ann Afr Med Date: 2018 Oct-Dec
Authors: Maznah Ismail; Abdulsamad Alsalahi; Huzwah Khaza'ai; Mustapha Umar Imam; Der Jiun Ooi; Mad Nasir Samsudin; Zulkifli Idrus; Muhammed Ha'iz Mohd Sokhini; Musheer A Aljaberi Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health Date: 2020-07-28 Impact factor: 3.390