Coronary revascularization after thrombolytic therapy for myocardial infarction: what caseloads could Canadian centres face?

A simple model was developed to project the potential effect of intravenous thrombolytic therapy on the caseloads of revascularization early after acute myocardial infarction. Published data were used to estimate the proportion of infarct patients eligible for thrombolytic treatment and their subsequent rates of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABS) within 2 weeks and up to 6 to 12 weeks after treatment. Toronto regional caseload data were obtained from registries and hospital discharge records. Our primary projections, based only on coronary angiography for evidence of spontaneous or exercise-induced ischemia, suggest a 165% increase in the post-thrombolysis use of PTCA within 2 weeks of infarction and even greater increases 6 to 12 weeks after infarction. Adding in selective use of salvage PTCA for some patients with persisting pain despite thrombolysis increases the overall PTCA caseload within 2 weeks by 242%. Data on the current caseload of post-thrombolysis CABS are unavailable. However, our projected caseload for the 30% of infarct patients treated with thrombolytic drugs equals or exceeds the current number of CABS procedures performed on all infarct patients within a month of the event. All these projections are conservative, in that they consider neither procedures 3 to 12 months after infarction nor restenosis after PTCA. This analysis illustrates that current approaches to revascularization after thrombolytic therapy could have a substantial effect on PTCA and CABS caseloads. Further studies with improved caseload data are needed to validate these preliminary projections.