Prediction of transplant-free survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients using joint models for event times and mixed multivariate longitudinal data.

We implement a joint model for mixed multivariate longitudinal measurements, applied to the prediction of time until lung transplant or death in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Specifically, we formulate a unified Bayesian joint model for the mixed longitudinal responses and time-to-event outcomes. For the longitudinal model of continuous and binary responses, we investigate multivariate generalized linear mixed models using shared random effects. Longitudinal and time-to-event data are assumed to be independent conditional on available covariates and shared parameters. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, implemented in OpenBUGS, is used for parameter estimation. To illustrate practical considerations in choosing a final model, we fit 37 different candidate models using all possible combinations of random effects and employ a Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) to select a best fitting model. We demonstrate the prediction of future event probabilities within a fixed time interval for patients utilizing baseline data, post-baseline longitudinal responses, and the time-to-event outcome. The performance of our joint model is also evaluated in simulation studies.